ECB Interest Rates: September 2026
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Market pricing makes 25 bps increase the favorite at 98% across 5 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
RPT-ECB set for September rate hike with no appetite to signal more, sources say
RPT-ECB set for September rate hike with no appetite to signal more, sources say
RPT-ECB set for September rate hike with no appetite to signal more, sources say
Reuters Poll-ECB Deposit Rate to Be 2.50% at End-2026, Said 55 of 69 Economists (vs 49 of 74 in July Poll)
Reuters Poll-ECB Deposit Rate to Be 2.50% at End-2026, Said 55 of 69 Economists (vs 49 of 74 in July Poll)
Reuters Poll-ECB Deposit Rate to Be 2.50% at End-2026, Said 55 of 69 Economists (vs 49 of 74 in July Poll)
Reuters Poll-ECB to Hike Deposit Rate by 25 Bps to 2.50% in September, Said 57 of 69 Economists
Reuters Poll-ECB to Hike Deposit Rate by 25 Bps to 2.50% in September, Said 57 of 69 Economists
Reuters Poll-ECB to Hike Deposit Rate by 25 Bps to 2.50% in September, Said 57 of 69 Economists
Reuters Poll-ECB to Hike Deposit Rate by 25 Bps to 2.50% in September, Said 57 of 69 Economists
Live: There has been a bit of a move in implied interest rate probabilities: financial market investors are now pricing in a 64.3% chance there is no change at the Se
ECB on course to raise rates again in September
ECB on course to raise rates again in September
ECB on course to raise rates again in September
ECB on course to raise rates again in September
European Central Bank to Watch Rising Energy Prices — 21bp Hike Expected in September. • The global financial landscape is experiencing a strong convergence of geopolitical friction, structural commodity shocks, and m
European Central Bank to Watch Rising Energy Prices — 21bp Hike Expected in September. • The global financial landscape is experiencing a strong convergence of geopolitical friction, structural commodity shocks, and m
ECB pauses interest rate hikes; market reaffirms expectation of a 0.25% increase in September.
ECB pauses interest rate hikes; market reaffirms expectation of a 0.25% increase in September.
ECB pauses interest rate hikes; market reaffirms expectation of a 0.25% increase in September.
ECB Officials Are Ready To Raise Interest Rates In September - @business •
ECB Officials Are Ready To Raise Interest Rates In September - @business •
ECB Officials Are Ready To Raise Interest Rates In September - @business •
ECB Officials Are Ready To Raise Interest Rates In September - @business •
*ECB OFFICIALS ARE READY TO RAISE INTEREST RATES IN SEPTEMBER
*ECB OFFICIALS ARE READY TO RAISE INTEREST RATES IN SEPTEMBER
*ECB OFFICIALS ARE READY TO RAISE INTEREST RATES IN SEPTEMBER
*ECB OFFICIALS ARE READY TO RAISE INTEREST RATES IN SEPTEMBER
The ECB is keeping its policy interest rate unchanged and is closely watching the trend of rising oil prices... Expectations of a September rate hike are growing.
The ECB is keeping its policy interest rate unchanged and is closely watching the trend of rising oil prices... Expectations of a September rate hike are growing.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.