North Carolina Senate Election WinnerRoy Cooper (D)
Open$110Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 96% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES96¢
NO4¢
as of
What moved the odds?
6 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Why North Carolina is shifting Democratic Democrats have the wind at their backs in North Carolina, particularly in the race for Senate, where former Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat, is up against Republican political operative Michael Whatley to replace retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.). Based on polling, nonpartisan ratings and campaign shifts, Cooper seems poised to win. A national Republican PAC…
My column from last month • • Sure enough, Rs cut NC loose today, 10/2 • • GOP operatives are already eyeing cutbacks in their spending against Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.), I’m told by well-placed party sources, and by October may have to cede North Carolina entirely and hand over a Republican-held seat. Internal Republican polls show former Gov. Roy Cooper leading that race by double digits, a margin that can perhaps be halved but not erased. • •
NC and GA fading >>> • • GOP operatives are already eyeing cutbacks in their spending against Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.), I’m told by well-placed party sources, and by October may have to cede North Carolina entirely and hand over a Republican-held seat. Internal Republican polls show former Gov. Roy Cooper leading that race by double digits, a margin that can perhaps be halved but not erased. • • In both Southern states, Republican officials increasingly believe they’re wasting their money, and it would be better spent on flipping Democratic Senate seats in Michigan and New Hampshire, where their candidates are stronger and Democrats are more vulnerable. • • Fittingly. Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) hosted a fundraiser at a private home in Dallas Monday night, featuring former president George W. Bush, that included Rogers and John Sununu — the GOP nominees in Michigan and New Hampshire — but not the party’s nominees in North Carolina and Georgia.
North Carolina Senate race • • Fox News poll • • Roy Cooper (D) 53% • Michael Whatley (R) 44% • •
New Fox News North Carolina Senate poll: • • Roy Cooper (D) - 53% • Michael Whatley (R) - 44%
According to our model, Democrat Roy Cooper is the favorite to win the North Carolina Senate race, with a win probability of 72%. • • The projected vote share is 52% for Cooper and 48% for Republican Michael Whatley.
Where does the news lean?
17YES2NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm North Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
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