Bank of Russia decision in September?Increase

The Central Bank has lowered its key rate for the tenth time in a row, this time to 14%. The significant price increase and increased inflation expectations in the summer months were largely due to one-off factors, the regulator noted. The estimate for sustainable inflation remains in the range of 4-5% on an annualized basis. The baseline scenario assumes an average key rate of 14.5-14.6% per annum in 2026 and 10.5-12.5% ​​per annum in 2027, the Central Bank reported. How the rate has changed over the past 13 years - in the RBC infographic. RBC channel on "Max" RBC app for iOS and Android [in reply to: The Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia cut the key rate by 25 basis points at the meeting on July 24 - to 14%, the regulator said in a statement. This is the tenth meeting in a row that the Central Bank has eased monetary policy. But in the last two meetings, it has done so in more careful steps - 25 bp. instead of the previous 50 bps. The Central Bank's decision did not match market expectations: 26 of the 30 participants in the RBC consensus forecast (analysts from large banks and investment companies) predicted that for the first time in a year, the regulator would leave the rate unchanged—at 14.25%. Only two allowed for the possibility that the Bank of Russia would not interrupt the easing cycle and cut the rate by 25 bps, while two more experts called both options equally likely. RBC channel on "Max" RBC app for iOS and Android]

The economy as a whole grew at a moderate pace in the second quarter of the year, the Central Bank said in a statement following the meeting of the regulator's Board of Directors. Due to a significant increase in fuel prices, the annual inflation forecast was 6.0-7.0% in 2026. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android [in reply to: The Central Bank has cut its key rate for the tenth time in a row, to 14%. The regulator's decision did not coincide with the consensus forecast of Vedomosti: only five of the 20 economists surveyed expected a rate cut, while three expected a 25 bp step. 14 experts expected the rate to remain unchanged. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android]

FWD from Making Money with Anastasia Boyko: Is the Rate Cut Cycle Over? The sharp rise in inflation expectations announced by the Central Bank yesterday will make maintaining the rate virtually the only alternative, experts believe. While several economists in a Vedomosti consensus poll predicted a further rate cut before these statistics were released, that likelihood has now disappeared. At the same time, no one expects an increase on Friday, as the rise in expectations is more of a temporary emotional factor. The poll was conducted at the height of the fuel crisis – from July 6 to 15, when gasoline shortages were recorded in a number of regions, and restrictions on its sale were introduced. Furthermore, inflation is non-monetary in nature, and fighting it with interest rates is ineffective, experts believe. Expectations have changed the most among households without savings; this population group is most sensitive to fluctuations in gasoline prices. Observed inflation, according to their estimates, rose from 15.1% in June to 17.1% in July, and expectations for price increases over the coming year soared from 13.6% to 16.5%. What do the experts say? The main driver of expectations was likely the fuel situation, as other goods are rising in price at a relatively moderate pace, notes Valery Weisberg, Director of the Analytical Department at Region Investment Company. The increase in this indicator may reflect the June picture of fuel lines and "universal human emotions," agrees Dmitry Polevoy, Investment Director at Astra Asset Management.