Bank of Russia decision in September?

What will the Central Bank's Board of Directors decide on the key rate today? Most experts agree that the key rate will remain unchanged or be reduced by a cosmetic 0.25%. Meanwhile, Zabotkin, the Central Bank's deputy chairman and official spokesman, clearly outlined the regulator's position in a recent interview. He stated that inflation has accelerated significantly since June, and that "it was announced that fiscal policy will determine a more significant contribution from the public sector to aggregate demand in 2026-2028." In other words, the executive branch will continue to stimulate material production, despite the bank's strong objections. The combination of these two factors means that, in accordance with its views, the Central Bank is simply obliged to increase the key rate. According to the regulator's criteria, the situation is much more conducive to this than, for example, in July 2024, when, with much more modest dynamics of budget expenditures and the CPI, the CAR was raised by 2% at once. It is logical to expect, if not an increase of 0.25-1% to the current CAR, then at least zero movement. However, in the current situation, the tenths of a percent with which the Central Bank operates are of fundamental importance, trying to balance its claims to maintaining independence in opposition to all branches of government and the political establishment, on the one hand, and the need to comply with legal obligations to the IMF, adhering to the dogmas of monetarism (which have no relation to the specific Russian economic realities), on the other. In recent years, the government has learned to bypass the straightforward directives of the Central Bank, preserving and modernizing the real sector and using a wide range of not only financial, but mainly organizational and digital instruments. For business and material production, the cutoff point for unaffordable borrowing is not particularly important: 20-30%, as under the current monetary policy, or 30-45%, as was the rate a year earlier. The minimum required for industrial and agricultural development is 5-7% with inflation at 2-3%. The real rate is 3-4%. Such benchmarks are not expected in the long term under the current monetary policy. Given these circumstances, the meeting on the key rate and its discussion are interesting primarily as an episode in the standoff between the regulator and the executive branch. So far, the government is in the lead, having relatively successfully mitigated the consequences of the Central Bank's block on investment and achieved 80% budget revenue from non-oil and gas revenues. However, the regulator is confidently achieving its main goal, achieving new records for banking profits—this year, they will likely surpass the 4.5 trillion ruble mark, which is comparable to the size of the federal budget deficit.

At its meeting on September 11, the Central Bank will keep the key rate at the current level (14%), as expected by 23 out of 30 economists surveyed by Vedomosti. This could be the first pause in the year-and-a-half cycle of monetary policy easing. At the same time, seven analysts allow for the possibility of an alternative scenario in September – a rate cut by 25 basis points (bp) to 13.75%, One of them does not even rule out a more decisive step – a cut by 50 bp. None of the respondents expect a rate increase. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android

The key rate could reach 13-13.5% by the end of 2026, Sberbank CEO German Gref told Vesti News Agency. According to him, a decline in investment has been observed this year, which could impact economic growth in the coming years. “In our opinion, of course, the real rate needs to be reduced in order to create new spaces and opportunities for business. We expect the rate to decrease by 0.25 basis points - 0.5 basis points. By the end of this year, we expect the rate to be approximately 13-13.5%. And by the end of next year, 11-11.5%,” Gref said. RBC Channel on Max RBC app for iOS and Android

The Bank of Russia will pause its key rate cut cycle and keep it at 14% following the board meeting on September 11, according to Izvestia's consensus forecast. The scope for rapid policy easing is narrowing again: inflation remains around 6% against a target of 4%, the ruble has weakened, and price expectations remain high. Additional risks are posed by rising fuel prices and a possible increase in budget expenditures. At the same time, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned at the Eastern Economic Forum that it is important to prevent the economy from overcooling. Read more in Izvestia's exclusive report. More IZ RU news in MAX

The Bank of Russia may pause in its key rate cuts, as the regulator needs time to assess the factors, Sberbank CEO Herman Gref said at the Eastern Economic Forum. According to the financial institution's estimates, the rate will be 13-13.5% by the end of this year. Gref also emphasized that there are currently no grounds for another increase in the key rate. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android

URGENT Sberbank does not currently expect the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to increase its key rate - Gref

Sberbank CEO German Gref allowed for "tactical pauses" in lowering the key rate at the Eastern Economic Forum, an RBC correspondent reports. Gref believes that a further gradual reduction in the rate is possible; he sees no reason for it to increase. Sberbank expects the key rate to be at 11-12%. RBC channel on "Max" RBC app for iOS and Android

Sberbank currently does not expect the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to increase its key interest rate, according to Gref.

In its baseline economic development scenario, the Central Bank of Russia forecast the key rate at 14.5–14.6% by the end of 2026. In 2027, it will fall to 10.5–12.5%, and in 2029 to 7.5–8.5%, according to the draft of the main directions of the Central Bank's unified state monetary policy. The baseline scenario is based on the fact that the situation in the Middle East will normalize by the beginning of next year. In this case, annual inflation in Russia by the end of 2026 will amount to 6–7%, and in 2027, it will decrease to 4% and will continue to remain close to the target, the Central Bank expects. Subscribe to Kommersant in MAX | in Telegram [in reply to: The Bank of Russia has lowered its key rate by 25 basis points to 14% per annum, the regulator's press service reported. In June, it was set at 14.25% per annum. The Central Bank's decision was the tenth consecutive easing of monetary policy. The rate-cutting cycle began with the June 2025 meeting. Subscribe to Kommersant in MAX | in Telegram]

The Central Bank of the Russian Federation views the current acceleration in price growth as temporary, Nabiullina said. Other statements by the head of the Central Bank: The situation on the fuel market is gradually normalizing; The rise in fuel prices, according to current data, is beginning to spread to prices for a wide range of goods and services; Steady inflation in the second half of 2026 will remain near current levels, the Central Bank's estimate has not changed; A significant portion of pro-inflationary risks is associated with a decrease in the production capacity of some industries. Video not loading? Watch in MAX [in reply to: The Central Bank lowered the key rate to 14% from 14.25% per annum. ]

The Central Bank has lowered its key rate for the tenth time in a row, this time to 14%. The significant price increase and increased inflation expectations in the summer months were largely due to one-off factors, the regulator noted. The estimate for sustainable inflation remains in the range of 4-5% on an annualized basis. The baseline scenario assumes an average key rate of 14.5-14.6% per annum in 2026 and 10.5-12.5% ​​per annum in 2027, the Central Bank reported. How the rate has changed over the past 13 years - in the RBC infographic. RBC channel on "Max" RBC app for iOS and Android [in reply to: The Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia cut the key rate by 25 basis points at the meeting on July 24 - to 14%, the regulator said in a statement. This is the tenth meeting in a row that the Central Bank has eased monetary policy. But in the last two meetings, it has done so in more careful steps - 25 bp. instead of the previous 50 bps. The Central Bank's decision did not match market expectations: 26 of the 30 participants in the RBC consensus forecast (analysts from large banks and investment companies) predicted that for the first time in a year, the regulator would leave the rate unchanged—at 14.25%. Only two allowed for the possibility that the Bank of Russia would not interrupt the easing cycle and cut the rate by 25 bps, while two more experts called both options equally likely. RBC channel on "Max" RBC app for iOS and Android]

The economy as a whole grew at a moderate pace in the second quarter of the year, the Central Bank said in a statement following the meeting of the regulator's Board of Directors. Due to a significant increase in fuel prices, the annual inflation forecast was 6.0-7.0% in 2026. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android [in reply to: The Central Bank has cut its key rate for the tenth time in a row, to 14%. The regulator's decision did not coincide with the consensus forecast of Vedomosti: only five of the 20 economists surveyed expected a rate cut, while three expected a 25 bp step. 14 experts expected the rate to remain unchanged. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android]

FWD from Making Money with Anastasia Boyko: Is the Rate Cut Cycle Over? The sharp rise in inflation expectations announced by the Central Bank yesterday will make maintaining the rate virtually the only alternative, experts believe. While several economists in a Vedomosti consensus poll predicted a further rate cut before these statistics were released, that likelihood has now disappeared. At the same time, no one expects an increase on Friday, as the rise in expectations is more of a temporary emotional factor. The poll was conducted at the height of the fuel crisis – from July 6 to 15, when gasoline shortages were recorded in a number of regions, and restrictions on its sale were introduced. Furthermore, inflation is non-monetary in nature, and fighting it with interest rates is ineffective, experts believe. Expectations have changed the most among households without savings; this population group is most sensitive to fluctuations in gasoline prices. Observed inflation, according to their estimates, rose from 15.1% in June to 17.1% in July, and expectations for price increases over the coming year soared from 13.6% to 16.5%. What do the experts say? The main driver of expectations was likely the fuel situation, as other goods are rising in price at a relatively moderate pace, notes Valery Weisberg, Director of the Analytical Department at Region Investment Company. The increase in this indicator may reflect the June picture of fuel lines and "universal human emotions," agrees Dmitry Polevoy, Investment Director at Astra Asset Management.

Rising inflation expectations among Russians rule out a rate cut Public expectations for price increases in the coming year jumped to 14.7% in July from 12.4% in June, according to an inFOM survey for the Central Bank. The indicator, which reflects the median value of respondents' estimates, reached its highest level since March 2022. The sharp rise in inflation expectations may be due to the fact that the survey was conducted at the height of the fuel crisis – from July 6 to 15, when gasoline shortages were recorded in a number of regions and restrictions on its sales were introduced, experts interviewed by Vedomosti note. The Central Bank may use these survey results as an excuse to increase "toughness" at its July meeting. According to NES professor Oleg Shibanov, the regulator will likely strengthen its decision not to lower the rate. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android

Anatoly Aksakov, head of the State Duma Committee on Financial Markets, expressed hope that the Central Bank will lower the key rate by at least 0.25 percentage points, an RBC correspondent reports. "God willing, it will be a 0.25 percentage point reduction, but the situation is such that it [the Bank of Russia] may not change the key rate. There are even forecasts that it may raise the key rate. But this is connected precisely with the situation with oil products," the deputy said at a press conference. However, in his opinion, "the oil product factor, let's say, has already played its negative role, and it can no longer be taken into account, that is, 0.25 percentage points." The budget deficit also affects inflation, he added. Aksakov, however, did not rule out that the Central Bank will leave the rate at the same level as now. RBC channel on "Max" RBC app for iOS and Android