How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?5.70%
Open$48Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 40% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES40¢
NO61¢
as of
What moved the odds?
1 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
TREASURY YIELDS SURGE TO FRESH 24-YEAR HIGHS • • Treasuries sold off sharply, pushing the 10-year yield to 5.34% and the 30-year to 5.70%, their highest levels since 2002. • • Pressure comes from resilient growth, AI-driven investment and persistent inflation, with ISM Services Prices Paid hitting 74.0, the highest since July 2022. • • Markets price roughly a 25% chance of an October Fed hike, with a full 25bp increase priced by December.
Where does the news lean?
1YES0NO29neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
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