How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?Below 4.73%
Open$1Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 31% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES31¢
NO70¢
as of
What moved the odds?
1 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
NY bonds continue to fall; 10-year Treasury yield falls to 4.84%, briefly reaching a 2-year and 10-month high, due to dissatisfaction with the US Treasury's buyback.
Where does the news lean?
0YES1NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 82% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
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