How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?Below 4.56%
ResolvedOutcome: No$12Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
6 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
NY bonds see slight decline in long-term bonds; 10-year Treasury yield at 4.96%; uncertainty over monetary policy weighs on the market.
NY bonds continue to fall; 10-year Treasury yield at 5.02% amid expectations of further Fed interest rate hikes.
NY bond market: Long-term bonds flat; 10-year Treasury yield at 4.96%, briefly at its highest level in 2 years and 11 months, fueled by expectations of interest rate hikes based on CPI.
The downward trend in bonds is pushing benchmark US Treasury yields toward the 5% level ahead of US inflation data that will determine expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike. The 10-year Treasury yield has risen to trade just below 5%, which could attract bargain hunters, but also carries the risk of triggering a further sell-off that could have repercussions in global markets. The yield reached approximately 4.95%, its highest level since 2023 and approaching its highest level since 2007. A break above 5% in the 10-year Treasury yield would pose a growing challenge for US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and could jeopardize the sustainability of US public finances, as well as threaten stock markets, according to Bloomberg. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI), due out today, is expected to be one of the most important indicators in recent years, with a probability of There is an almost 70% probability of an interest rate hike at the Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for September 16. Bond yield movements affect the cost of capital for almost everything and everyone. This includes US mortgage rates, a politically significant metric for American voters ahead of the midterm elections, which have already reached their highest levels in over a year. As the global benchmark for bonds, US Treasury yields are the reference price for debt markets worldwide, which are themselves under pressure. A 5% increase above this level could be enough to rattle equity markets. #Arabic_Business
U.S. 10-year Treasury bond hovers just below 'psychological threshold' of 5%
NY bonds continue to fall; 10-year Treasury yield falls to 4.84%, briefly reaching a 2-year and 10-month high, due to dissatisfaction with the US Treasury's buyback.
Where does the news lean?
2YES12NO5neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Related markets
See all outcomes for How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.