How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?

OpenOutcomes9as of

Market pricing makes Below 4.76% the favorite at 49% across 9 tracked outcomes, as of .

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

Below 4.76%49%
Below 4.73%32%
Below 4.67%24%
Below 4.70%14%
Below 4.64%13%
Below 4.51%9%
Below 4.56%8%
Below 4.61%5%
Below 4.45%3%

What moved the odds?

No directional matched news signals are available across this event yet.

What is this event about?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

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