Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit Japan?
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$132Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
47 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Airport closes in Okinawa as Typhoon Dolphin hits parts of southern Japan
Typhoon Dolphin strikes Okinawa, Japan, injuring 3; traffic control measures implemented in various locations.
[Typhoon Information] Large and powerful Typhoon No. 13 (Dolphin) will directly hit Okinawa... Maximum instantaneous wind speed of 55 m/s. Amami and Okinawa should be on high alert for strong winds and high waves. There is also a possibility of linear rainband formation. What will happen to Typhoon No. 15? Detailed forecast of its path and strength. Nationwide weather with images. Japan Meteorological Agency
Live footage: Typhoon Dolphin approaches the coast of southern Japan, bringing heavy rain and strong winds.
[Double Typhoon Information] Typhoon No. 13 (Dolphin) with a maximum instantaneous wind speed of 55m/s directly hits Okinawa... What will happen next? Large Typhoon No. 15 (Chan-hom) may approach eastern to northern Japan - What will happen during Obon? Forecast of path and rain and wind simulation [Japan Meteorological Agency, August 6, 10:45 AM]
[Double Typhoon Information] Large and powerful Typhoon No. 13 (Dolphin) will make its closest approach to Okinawa and Amami tomorrow... What will be the impact on Kyushu? Large Typhoon No. 15 (Chan-hom) is also expected to approach the Japanese archipelago. Path forecast and rain/wind simulation [Japan Meteorological Agency, 9:50 PM, June 6th]
[Double Typhoon Information] Large and powerful Typhoon No. 13 (Dolphin) to head towards Okinawa and Amami tomorrow... Kumamoto also in the strong wind zone. Large Typhoon No. 15 (Chan-hom) to approach the Japanese archipelago. Path forecast and rain/wind simulation [Japan Meteorological Agency, 16:05 on the 6th]
[Double Typhoon Information] Large and powerful Typhoon No. 13 (Dolphin) will head towards Okinawa and Amami tomorrow... and its effects may linger afterward. Large Typhoon No. 15 (Chan-hom) may approach Honshu. Forecast of its path and rain and wind simulation [Issued by the Japan Meteorological Agency at 13:45 on the 6th]
[Double Typhoon Information] Large and powerful Typhoon No. 13 (Dolphin) will make its closest approach to Okinawa and Amami tomorrow...the effects may be prolonged. Large Typhoon No. 15 (Chan-hom) may approach Japan. Typhoon No. 14 (Kujira) will weaken into a tropical depression. Track forecast and rain/wind simulation [Japan Meteorological Agency, June 6, 11:43 AM]
[Triple Typhoon Information] Three typhoons have formed: Typhoon No. 13 "Dolphin," Typhoon No. 14 "Kujira," and Typhoon No. 15 "Chan-hom." Typhoon No. 13 may directly hit Okinawa on the 7th. Japan Meteorological Agency (as of 8:00 AM on the 6th)
[Triple Typhoon] Typhoon 13 (Dolphin) is expected to directly hit Okinawa on the 7th; Typhoon 14 (Kujira) is expected to weaken into a tropical depression on the afternoon of the 6th; Typhoon 15 (Chan-hom) may approach the Pacific coast of eastern and northern Japan on the 11th. [Rain and wind simulation, 6th-11th]
[Typhoon Information] Typhoon No. 13 (Dolphin) is approaching. Extremely strong winds are expected in Okinawa and Amami, potentially causing houses and buildings to collapse. 24-hour rainfall forecast: 150 mm in southern Kyushu, Amami, and Okinawa (until 6 PM on the 7th, in areas with the heaviest rainfall) (5:36 PM on the 5th, Japan Meteorological Agency announcement).
[Triple Typhoon Coming...] Large and extremely powerful Typhoon 13 (Dolphin) is moving westward... After directly hitting Okinawa, its course will shift northward. What will happen to Typhoon 14 (Whale) and Tropical Depression C? What will be the impact on Japan? Future path forecast and rain and wind simulation [Issued at 3:45 PM on the 5th] Pay attention to future typhoon information.
[Typhoon Information] Typhoon No. 13 (Dolphin) is moving westward with "large size and very strong" force. What is the expected path and strength? There is a possibility of a direct hit on Okinawa and Amami (Japan Meteorological Agency announcement, 12:45 PM, 5th)
[Typhoon Information] Large and extremely powerful Typhoon No. 13 (Dolphin) is moving westward south of Japan... After approaching Okinawa, it will change course northward and head towards the East China Sea... There is a risk of prolonged impact on Japan. Future path forecast and rain and wind simulation [Japan Meteorological Agency, announced on the 5th]
Large and extremely powerful Typhoon No. 13 "Dolphin" may affect Kumamoto and other parts of Kyushu. Future projected path and rain/wind simulation [Typhoon Information]
[Typhoon Information] Large and extremely powerful Typhoon 13 (Dolphin) is expected to hit Okinawa with great force this weekend, bringing extremely strong winds that could cause houses to collapse. Typhoon 14 (Whale) has also formed. What will its future path be? [Rain and wind simulation (5th-10th)]
[Typhoon Information] Large and very powerful Typhoon No. 13 (Dolphin) will make a direct hit on Okinawa this weekend before shifting its course northward. What will be the impact on Kyushu? [Japan Meteorological Agency - Rain and Wind Forecast Simulation]
[Double Typhoon] Extremely powerful Typhoon No. 13 (Dolphin) is expected to directly hit Okinawa, changing its course at a right angle and heading north, potentially putting Kyushu in the "dangerous semicircle." Typhoon No. 14 (Whale) has also formed in the South China Sea. [As of 6:00 AM on the 5th]
[Typhoon Information] Typhoon No. 13 (Dolphin), with a maximum instantaneous wind speed of 60 m/s, directly hit Okinawa, and its path is shifting northward. What will be the impact on Kyushu? Future path forecast and rain and wind simulation until Saturday the 15th [Japan Meteorological Agency, 9:45 PM, April 4th]
[Typhoon Information] Typhoon No. 13 (Dolphin), with a maximum instantaneous wind speed of 60 m/s, is moving westward... After directly hitting Okinawa, its path is shifting northward... The effects may be prolonged. Future path forecast and rain and wind simulation until Saturday the 15th [Japan Meteorological Agency, Announcement 8:45 PM on the 4th]
[Typhoon Information] Typhoon No. 13 (Dolphin) may make a direct hit on Okinawa before moving northward. Concerns also exist regarding its impact on areas affected by the Kumamoto earthquake. "Very strong intensity" with maximum instantaneous wind speeds of 60 m/s. See the predicted path and simulations of rain and wind (Japan Meteorological Agency)
[Typhoon Information] Typhoon No. 13 (Dolphin), with a maximum instantaneous wind speed of 60 m/s, has shifted its course northward after passing Okinawa... What will be the impact on Kyushu? A new tropical depression has also formed. Future path forecast and rain and wind simulation [Japan Meteorological Agency, 19:45 on the 4th]
[Typhoon Information] Typhoon No. 13 (Dolphin) maintains its "large size and very strong" intensity; may approach Kyushu... What is the predicted path and intensity? Expected to directly hit Okinawa and Amami (Japan Meteorological Agency announcement, 4:45 PM, October 4th)
[Typhoon Information] Large and very powerful Typhoon No. 13 (Dolphin) is moving westward... Maximum instantaneous wind speed 60 m/s, central pressure 945 hPa. After approaching Okinawa, its path will shift northward... What will be the impact on Kyushu? Future path forecast and rain and wind simulation [Japan Meteorological Agency, 16:45 on the 4th]
[Typhoon Information] Large and very powerful Typhoon No. 13 (Dolphin) is moving west south of Chichijima... Maximum instantaneous wind speed 60 m/s, central pressure 945 hPa. After approaching Okinawa, its path will shift north... Possibility of prolonged impact. Future path forecast and rain and wind simulation [Issued by the Japan Meteorological Agency at 3:45 PM on the 4th]
[Typhoon Information] Large and very strong Typhoon No. 13 (Dolphin) is moving west... with a central pressure of 945 hPa, expected to pass over Okinawa on Friday the 7th and Saturday the 8th. [Rain and wind simulation]
[Typhoon Information] Large and extremely powerful Typhoon No. 13 (Dolphin) with a maximum instantaneous wind speed of 60 m/s and a central pressure of 945 hPa. After approaching Okinawa, its path is shifting northward... What will be the impact on Kyushu? Future path forecast and rain and wind simulation [Japan Meteorological Agency, 14:45 on the 4th]
[Typhoon Information] Maximum instantaneous wind speed 60 m/s, central pressure 945 hPa. Large and very strong "Typhoon No. 13 (Dolphin)" made a direct hit on Okinawa, then its path shifted northward... What will be the impact on Kyushu? Future path forecast and rain and wind simulation [Japan Meteorological Agency, 13:45 on the 4th]
[Typhoon No. 13 (Dolphin)] When and where? Expected to approach the waters near Okinawa Island around the 7th. What will be the impact on Kyushu and Kumamoto? A large and very powerful typhoon moving westward. [See the projected path]
[Typhoon Information] Large and extremely powerful Typhoon No. 13 (Dolphin) with a maximum instantaneous wind speed of 60 m/s and a central pressure of 945 hPa. After directly hitting Okinawa, its path is shifting northward...the effects may be prolonged. Future path forecast and rain and wind simulation [Japan Meteorological Agency, 12:45 PM, 4th]
[Typhoon Information] Typhoon No. 13 (Dolphin) is approaching the Ogasawara Islands and moving westward. It may approach Okinawa and Amami around the 6th, and there is a possibility that it will then move northward. [Future path forecast and rain and wind simulation - Japan Meteorological Agency announcement, 9:45 AM on the 4th]
[Typhoon Information] Large and extremely powerful Typhoon No. 13 (Dolphin) with a maximum instantaneous wind speed of 60 m/s and a central pressure of 945 hPa is expected to directly hit Okinawa... What will be the impact on Kyushu? Path forecast and future rain and wind simulation [Japan Meteorological Agency, 6:45 AM, April 4th]
[Typhoon Information] Large and extremely powerful Typhoon No. 13 (Dolphin) is near the Ogasawara Islands... Maximum instantaneous wind speed of 60 m/s, central pressure of 945 hPa. Expected to directly hit Okinawa... Forecasted path and rain and wind simulation [Japan Meteorological Agency, 3rd, 15:45]
[Typhoon Information] When and where will Typhoon No. 13 (Dolphin) hit? [See its path map] The effects may last for a long time... It is expected to approach Okinawa and other southwestern islands around August 7th. What will be the impact on Kyushu and Kumamoto? Record-breaking heat waves are also expected in western Japan.
[Typhoon Information] Large and very strong Typhoon No. 13 (Dolphin) is moving westward with a central pressure of 945 hPa...Approaching Ogasawara Islands on Tuesday the 4th and Okinawa Main Island on Friday the 7th. Maximum instantaneous wind speed of 60 m/s. [Rain and wind simulation]
Typhoon Dolphin, a large and extremely powerful typhoon, is slowing down near Okinawa. Why? What is its projected path? Rainfall simulation. [Typhoon Information]
[Typhoon Information] Large and extremely powerful Typhoon No. 13 (Dolphin) is expected to make its closest approach to the Ogasawara Islands on the 4th, and may make its closest approach to Okinawa and Amami around the 7th. [Future path forecast and rain and wind simulation - Japan Meteorological Agency announcement, 3:45 PM on the 3rd]
[Typhoon Information] Large and extremely powerful Typhoon No. 13 (Dolphin) with maximum instantaneous wind speeds of 60 m/s may directly hit Okinawa later this week... Forecast of its path and future rain and wind simulation [Japan Meteorological Agency, 9:45 AM, 3rd]
[Typhoon Information] Typhoon No. 13 (Dolphin), described as "large and very strong," with maximum instantaneous wind speeds of 65 m/s, is expected to head towards Okinawa and Amami in the latter half of the week... There is a possibility of torrential rain and storm surges reaching warning levels. Path forecast and future rain and wind simulations [Japan Meteorological Agency, announced on the 3rd]
[Typhoon Information] Large and very strong Typhoon No. 13 (Dolphin) to directly hit Okinawa and Amami later this week; maximum instantaneous wind speed of 65 m/s; on a westward path towards mainland China - Japan Meteorological Agency
[Typhoon Information] Typhoon No. 13 (Dolphin), with a pressure of 940 hPa, is expected to approach the Ogasawara Islands tomorrow, Tuesday the 4th... Be vigilant for fierce winds and waves, and torrential rain of warning level. Okinawa and Amami will also be hit hard from Wednesday the 5th onwards. [Rain and wind simulation]
[Typhoon Information] "Very Strong" Typhoon No. 13 (Dolphin) may approach Okinawa and Amami from Thursday, the 6th onwards. Rough weather and rough seas are possible. [Future path forecast and rain and wind simulation - Japan Meteorological Agency announcement, 9:50 PM on the 1st]
[Typhoon Information] Typhoon No. 13 (Dolphin) may directly hit Okinawa on the 7th? Concerns also remain about its impact on areas affected by the Kumamoto earthquake. "Very strong intensity" with maximum instantaneous wind speeds of 70 m/s. See the predicted path and simulations of rain and wind (Japan Meteorological Agency)
[Typhoon Information] Typhoon No. 13 (Dolphin) may directly hit Okinawa on the 7th and also affect areas affected by the Kumamoto earthquake. "Very strong intensity" with maximum instantaneous wind speeds of 70 m/s. See the predicted path and simulations of rain and wind (Japan Meteorological Agency)
[Typhoon Information] "Extreme" Typhoon No. 13 (Dolphin) is expected to develop to a maximum instantaneous wind speed of 85 m/s and a central pressure of 905 hPa. It may approach Okinawa and Kyushu in the latter half of next week... Forecast of its path and simulation of future rain and wind. [Japan Meteorological Agency, 12:45 PM, 31st]
[Typhoon Information] Typhoon No. 13, ranked as "extremely powerful," with maximum instantaneous wind speeds reaching 85 m/s. It may directly hit Okinawa and affect Kyushu next week. Concerns remain about its impact on areas affected by the Kumamoto earthquake. What is its future path? Japan Meteorological Agency "Dolphin" report. *Updated 1 PM on the 31st
Where does the news lean?
107YES12NO34neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
How did this market resolve?
This market resolves "Yes" if the center of Super Typhoon Dolphin's circulation physically crosses the coastline of any Japanese territory (including Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, and all main islands) on or before August 15, 2026. Resolution is determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the storm over Japanese land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming the storm hitting Japanese territory. The system's classification is determined by the single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing. Once that advisory fixes classification at the time of impact, no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, the market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. In all cases, the classification is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Japanese land, regardless of whether JMA formally designates the event as "landfall" or "passage." The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Dolphin as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher). If that advisory classifies the system as extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market will resolve to "No".
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Japanese territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.