Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit Japan? Odds jumped to 56% on Aug 3, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: YesMove

Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit Japan? On , the market’s odds jumped from 47.5¢ to 56.5¢ (+9 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from newsdig.tbs.co.jp. The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

At match47.5¢
+5m48¢
+30m49¢
+1h56.5¢
+24h68.5¢
1h move+9 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Aug 3, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 48¢ → 57.5¢+9.5 ptsafter a signal from newsdig.tbs.co.jp
  • 49¢ → 57.5¢+8.5 ptsafter a signal from newsdig.tbs.co.jp

What moved the odds?

Yesnewsdig.tbs.co.jp97%match
[Typhoon Information] When and where will Typhoon No. 13 (Dolphin) hit? [See its path map] The effects may last for a long time... It is expected to approach Okinawa and other southwestern islands around August 7th. What will be the impact on Kyushu and Kumamoto? Record-breaking heat waves are also expected in western Japan.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

Vol$132K

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Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit Japan? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.