What will SpaceX (SPCX) hit in August 2026?↓ $90
Open$5Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 1% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES1¢
NO99¢
as of
What moved the odds?
4 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
$SPCX - SPACEX FACES MASSIVE SHARE UNLOCK • • Up to 911.5M SpaceX shares unlock today—more than 140% of the current public float—raising the risk of near-term volatility. • • The stock fell 12% after earnings despite beating on revenue and posting an unexpected AI profit. • • More unlocks follow on Aug. 12 and 20 days later, with 4B+ shares becoming tradable by year-end, creating a potential overhang even as long-term fundamentals remain in focus.
SpaceX shares plunged nearly 14% on Wednesday, dragged down by AI spending plans. The lock-up period for company employees and investors expires on Thursday, allowing them to sell some of their shares. This could bring greater volatility to the stock as new shares become available for trading.
*SPACEX CLOSES LOWER BY 14%, WIPING $225 BILLION IN MARKET VALUE
SpaceX Stock Down 9% On $18.4 Billion Capex Forecast. • Wall Street sees 86% upside for SpaceX stock but shares have already shed nearly half their value since peaking. The problem? Too much AI capex and not enough revenue.
Where does the news lean?
11YES6NO2neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during August 2026, any 1-minute candle for SpaceX (SPCX) has a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify.
Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the SpaceX (SPCX) "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPCX%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles.
Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPCX%2FUSD?t=1773432000)
If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily low price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
pythdata.app
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