What will SpaceX (SPCX) hit in August 2026?↓ $100
Open$9Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 2% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES2¢
NO98¢
as of
What moved the odds?
6 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
SpaceX renews investor hope with bold new plan. • SpaceX will build a $100 billion spaceport in Louisiana, and the stock rose. Here is what Starbase involves and how it changes the case for SPCX.
SpaceX shares rose nearly 3% on Thursday as Wall Street absorbed the lifting of the lock-up on up to 911.5 million shares, worth approximately $100 billion. #Arabic_Business
*SPACEX CLOSES LOWER BY 14%, WIPING $225 BILLION IN MARKET VALUE
Investors who clung to SpaceX shares after they fell below their initial public offering price are bracing for another potential blow as $101 billion worth of shares become available for trading tomorrow, Thursday. The lifting of restrictions on up to 911.5 million shares comes as volatility sent the stock tumbling after its first quarterly earnings report caused it to drop 10% in trading today. The high anticipation of the lifting of restrictions, coupled with the high valuation, attracted a wave of short sellers, with short selling reaching 35% of the total shares available for trading. According to data compiled by S3 Partners, this skepticism has resulted in a $5.3 billion book profit after the stock price fell 38% from its high on June 16, according to the agency. Bloomberg #Arabic_Business
SpaceX extends decline to 11% on lockup expiration and capex spending fears. • The company reported no BTC sales in the second quarter, but shares fell before the open as investors focused on capital spending, free cash flow pressure and a looming insider lockup expiry.
NOReuters91%match29¢+238%
SpaceX: Ended Q2 with $100 bln of Cash, Cash Equivalents, and Marketable Securities, and $47.5 bln in Backlog
Where does the news lean?
6YES15NO2neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 77% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during August 2026, any 1-minute candle for SpaceX (SPCX) has a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify.
Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the SpaceX (SPCX) "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPCX%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles.
Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPCX%2FUSD?t=1773432000)
If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily low price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
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