Next UK Chancellor of the Exchequer in 2026?Shabana Mahmood
ResolvedOutcome: No$391Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
20 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Following his official appointment, Shabana Mahmood has been reappointed as Home Secretary in the British Prime Minister Andy Burnham's government.
Following his official appointment, Shabana Mahmood has been reappointed as Home Secretary in the British Prime Minister Andy Burnham's government.
Shabana Mahmood was never formally offered the job of chancellor and "has been made clear throughout this process her desire to remain home secretary," a source close to her said.
Live: Shabana Mahmood remains UK home secretary
NEW: Shabana Mahmood stays as Home Secretary • • Staunch Burnham ally Louise Haigh becomes First Secretary of State, Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, and Minister for the Cabinet Office
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UK’s Shabana Mahmood to Be Appointed Interior Minister
Ed Miliband and Shabana Mahmood walk up Downing Street together in a piece of careful Downing Street choreography. • • Sky News's @bethrigby shouts: "Do you know which one of you is chancellor?" No answer. But Mahmood has been tipped for the role, with Miliband to foreign.
Live: Who is the real Shabana Mahmood and what are her views on the economy?
Inspiring: if appointed on Monday, Shabana Mahmood would be our trailblazing *seventh* ethnic minority Chancellor of the Exchequer. • • What an inspiring change of direction.
Inspiring: if appointed on Monday, Shabana Mahmood would be our trailblazing *sixth* ethnic minority Chancellor of the Exchequer. • • What an inspiring change of direction.
Exclusive: • • Andy Burnham is facing a revolt from his core support on the Labour left over his plans to appoint Shabana Mahmood over Ed Miliband as chancellor amid claims that she lacks an economic vision and is too divisive for the role • • Burnham is expected to confirm Mahmood, the home secretary, as his chancellor on Monday after being warned that Miliband risks becoming a lightning rod for criticism of the government • • However, Mahmood, who is on the right of the Labour Party, has never held an economic position in government and has said relatively little about her fiscal views in the past. Her hardline immigration reforms have proved particularly contentious on the left • • A senior ally of Burnham said: “Shabana has no sense of the economics. It’s just not something she’s ever spoken about. She’s not collaborative. It’s not clear how she would drive the machine.” • • Another Labour MP said: “It’s baffling a lot of people because nobody knows what her views are on the economy. Does she even have any? She’s never done a speech or intervention. It’s just absolutely bizarre and I can’t see her as a sensible appointment.” • • Rachael Maskell, a Labour MP on the left wing of the party and the first to endorse Burnham as Sir Keir Starmer’s successor last summer, said that appointing Mahmood would be a mistake • • “Ed has Treasury experience and he’s been able to bring our party together around some very difficult issues, really advancing the whole climate agenda and winning the argument. • • “Shabana, on the other hand, hasn’t brought our party together. Even this week many of us couldn’t support the legislation she is putting through [on immigration]. • • “She hasn’t got the level of skill and experience to provide the leadership that is needed in the Treasury. Ed has Treasury experience. That really does matter. Ed shines well above Shabana. It would be a mistake to appoint Shabana.” • • Allies of Mahmood rejected the criticism and highlighted her record in “driving through” policies and delivering at the Home Office. “The fact she is willing to do what is right rather than what is popular is a very good trait,” one ally said • •
Live: Markets react to Shabana Mahmood as frontrunner for chancellor
Pound rises as Shabana Mahmood emerges as frontrunner for chancellor
*SHABANA MAHMOOD TO BE NAMED UK CHANCELLOR BY ANDY BURNHAM: FT
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*SHABANA MAHMOOD TO BE NAMED UK CHANCELLOR BY ANDY BURNHAM: FT
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UK’s Burnham is Set to Name Interior Minister Shabana Mahmood as His Finance Minister, FT Reports
Shabana Mahmood set to be named UK chancellor by Andy Burnham
NEW: Shabana Mahmood ‘prepared to leave’ Home Office as she overtakes Ed Miliband as likely Chancellor • •
Live: Shabana Mahmood now leads race for chancellor and is ‘prepared’ to leave Home Office
Exclusive: Shabana Mahmood now leads race for chancellor and is ‘prepared’ to leave Home Office
Where does the news lean?
22YES6NO5neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Chancellor of the Exchequer will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Chancellor of the Exchequer is appointed, or Rachel Reeves is re-appointed as Chancellor of the Exchequer, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No next Chancellor in 2026”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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