Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? Odds fell to 0% on Jul 20, 2026

Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? On Jul 20, 2026, 16:29 UTC, the market’s odds fell from 84.3¢ to 0.1¢ (-84.1 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from ITV Reporter. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Jul 20, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

• Jul 20, 2026, 16:30 UTC78.7¢ → 0.1¢-78.5 ptsafter a signal from The Sun Reporter
• Jul 20, 2026, 16:30 UTC80.3¢ → 0.1¢-80.2 ptsafter a signal from Guardian Reporter
• Jul 20, 2026, 16:36 UTC74.3¢ → 0.1¢-74.2 ptsafter a signal from nytimes.com

What moved the odds?

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of Aug 30, 2026, 15:52 UTC.

Vol$391K

Follow this market

Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Next UK Chancellor of the Exchequer in 2026? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.