Next UK Chancellor of the Exchequer in 2026?Ed Miliband

ResolvedOutcome: NoVol$368KResolvedas of

Odds now

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

11 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .

NOJ.Post / i24 Reporter93%match100¢
Ed Miliband, a Jewish-British politician, former chairman of the British Labour Party, was appointed Foreign Secretary in Andy Burnham's new government.
NOBBC92%match100¢
Ed Miliband becomes UK foreign secretary as Shabana Mahmood keeps job as home secretary • • Follow live:
NOafp.com92%match100¢
ALERT: Ed Miliband appointed new UK foreign minister: govt
NOdbws.io92%match100¢
UK PM Burnham appoints Ed Miliband as foreign minister
NOThe Sun Reporter92%match100¢
Ed Miliband foreign secretary • • Shabana Mahmood stays as Home Secretary
NOTimes Reporter94%match100¢
BREAKING • • Ed Miliband gets foreign secretary after missing out as Chancellor to John Healey
NOGuardian Reporter94%match100¢
BREAKING: John Healey is Andy Burnham's surprise pick as chancellor, with former defence secretary emerging as compromise candidate after Ed Miliband and Shabana Mahmood were both tipped for the role.
NOGuardian Reporter97%match99¢+1%
BREAKING: John Healey is Andy Burnham's surprise pick as chancellor, emerging as compromise candidate after Ed Miliband and Shabana Mahmood were both tipped. • • The former defence secretary - who was a Treasury minister under Gordon Brown - is seen as a safe pair of hands who will do new PM's bidding as chancellor.
NOITV Reporter94%match99¢+1%
The stupidest game in politics is predicting a new cabinet, because it is literally one person’s call - Burnham’s tomorrow - and weirdly he hasn’t shared his almost-decisions with me. • • Also even if - when he is PM tomorrow - Burnham thinks he knows precisely who he wants in which job, he’ll be aware that the picks of his predecessors had an annoying habit of saying “no thank you”. Best laid plans, and all that. • • In this instance, several Labour MPs who 100% will be in the cabinet have told me - and I believe them - that even now, just hours before the cabinet will be announced, they have no clue what Burnham will offer them. • • And to be clear, I am not talking about obscure friends of the northern king. I am talking about household names. • • But with all those caveats, my working assumption is the current home secretary Shabana Mahmood will be the new chancellor. • • If such weren’t the case, given all the prior briefing, we’d know through nods and winks - because Burnham is presumably savvy enough not to want to destabilise the markets after all his colleagues’ conditioning for Mahmood in recent days. • • If it is Mahmood, it is a racing certainty that the eminent economists Jim O’Neill and/or Andy Haldane will have big advisory rolls, maybe on some kind of econ/growth council spanning Downing St and the Treasury - to compensate for Mahmood’s lack of Treasury experience and economic expertise. • • As for foreign secretary, those close to Burnham think it will be Ed Miliband, and that Yvette Cooper - current incumbent - would return to being home secretary. • • It would be bizarre if Labour’s deputy leader, Lucy Powell, didn’t become deputy prime minister, and if Louise Haigh - so important to his elevation from Manchester mayor to PM - didn’t become his chief enforcer as chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster. • • Finally there is still loads of chatter that Ed Miliband’s brother David Miliband will return to government from his self-imposed New York exile in some or other senior capacity - but if he’s not reprising his erstwhile role as foreign secretary, gawd knows what he will do. • • Cards on table. This could all be nonsense. But perhaps it is useful nonsense, because it is an insight into what senior members of Burnham’s soon-to-be-government think is likely. • • And if they are wrong, that says something important about the tightness (lack of leakiness) of his circle of trust.
NOTimes Reporter93%match97¢+3%
Exclusive: • • Andy Burnham is facing a revolt from his core support on the Labour left over his plans to appoint Shabana Mahmood over Ed Miliband as chancellor amid claims that she lacks an economic vision and is too divisive for the role • • Burnham is expected to confirm Mahmood, the home secretary, as his chancellor on Monday after being warned that Miliband risks becoming a lightning rod for criticism of the government • • However, Mahmood, who is on the right of the Labour Party, has never held an economic position in government and has said relatively little about her fiscal views in the past. Her hardline immigration reforms have proved particularly contentious on the left • • A senior ally of Burnham said: “Shabana has no sense of the economics. It’s just not something she’s ever spoken about. She’s not collaborative. It’s not clear how she would drive the machine.” • • Another Labour MP said: “It’s baffling a lot of people because nobody knows what her views are on the economy. Does she even have any? She’s never done a speech or intervention. It’s just absolutely bizarre and I can’t see her as a sensible appointment.” • • Rachael Maskell, a Labour MP on the left wing of the party and the first to endorse Burnham as Sir Keir Starmer’s successor last summer, said that appointing Mahmood would be a mistake • • “Ed has Treasury experience and he’s been able to bring our party together around some very difficult issues, really advancing the whole climate agenda and winning the argument. • • “Shabana, on the other hand, hasn’t brought our party together. Even this week many of us couldn’t support the legislation she is putting through [on immigration]. • • “She hasn’t got the level of skill and experience to provide the leadership that is needed in the Treasury. Ed has Treasury experience. That really does matter. Ed shines well above Shabana. It would be a mistake to appoint Shabana.” • • Allies of Mahmood rejected the criticism and highlighted her record in “driving through” policies and delivering at the Home Office. “The fact she is willing to do what is right rather than what is popular is a very good trait,” one ally said • •
NOinews.co.uk99%match82¢+22%
Minister ‘warns against Miliband as chancellor’

Where does the news lean?

7YES17NO8neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.

How did this market resolve?

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Chancellor of the Exchequer will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor of the Exchequer is appointed, or Rachel Reeves is re-appointed as Chancellor of the Exchequer, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No next Chancellor in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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