Will Russia invade another country in 2026?

OpenVol$429KDeadlineas of

Odds now

The market prices a 8% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES8¢
NO93¢

24has of

Where does the news lean?

0YES0NO1neutraltrailing 24h

What would make this resolve YES?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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