When will Russia invade another country?
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Market pricing makes December 31, 2027 the favorite at 17% across 2 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
1 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
The report states that it is unlikely that Russia will launch an invasion. However, it comes with a caveat . • • It says the following: • • There are still no signs that Russia will launch an actual military invasion with regular forces of one or more NATO countries, the threat assessment states. • • It is estimated that it will take at least six months for Russia to prepare and build up forces for a military intervention, but it is unlikely that Russia will do so, but it cannot be ruled out. • • The assessment also states that Russia will only carry out military attacks if the country assesses that it will not lead to war against a unified NATO, but at the same time there is a certain uncertainty within Russia about where that line is drawn.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.