When will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka?December 31
Open$1.0Mas of
Odds now
The market prices a 14% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES14¢
NO87¢
as of
What moved the odds?
1 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Putin will not be able to capture Donbas before 2032, — ISW Putin has ordered his generals to capture Donetsk region by the end of the year — this is the 15th announced deadline since the beginning of the war, according to a report by the American Institute for the Study of War. Analysts believe that this deadline is a consequence of his illusions about the real situation on the front. The Russian General Staff systematically lies to Putin about the real situation on the front line, so he is confident that Russian troops are able to conquer Donbas soon — and therefore, there is no need to make any compromises with Kiev. ISW also expresses skepticism about the implementation of Putin's goals even after the deadline, indicating that at the current pace of progress, Russia will not be able to capture Donetsk region by 2032 — if at all. Add News.LIVE as a source of reliable news on Google
Where does the news lean?
5YES3NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.528896° N, 37.702514° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Kostyantynivka will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. If all area within the municipality is shaded under a qualifying layer, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of unshaded area along the border of the municipality, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify:
- Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain
- Assessed Russian Advances
Shading under the following layers will not qualify:
- Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas
- Claimed Russian Territory
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
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