When will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka?
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Market pricing makes December 31 the favorite at 44% across 6 tracked outcomes, as of .
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11 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Putin has set his military the task of capturing Donbas by December 31 - Palisa The Kremlin has set the military leadership the task of reaching the administrative borders of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions by December 31 of this year, said Deputy Head of the Presidential Office Pavlo Palisa. As reported by an Interfax-Ukraine correspondent, he said this during a meeting with journalists.
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In the coming months, Ukraine may lose control over Kostyantynivka. And the same risk may loom over Lyman and Dobropillya by the end of the year, - RBC-Ukraine sources in military-political circles According to the interlocutors, if events develop unfavorably by the end of winter, Russian troops may come very close to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. At the same time, according to the Kremlin's plans, the Russian army should reach the administrative border of the Donetsk region by the end of the year. However, RBC-Ukraine sources doubt that Russia will be able to achieve this goal even in 2027. Read only the essence from RBC-Ukraine on Google. #ExclusiveRBKUkraine [in reply to: Ballistic terror and a trap for Putin: what is Russia planning and is a truce possible this year The pace of the Russian offensive has decreased. This year they are several times lower than in similar periods of previous years, and even lower than they were in winter. The greatest threat remains in the Donetsk region. Moscow still plans to take it by the end of this year. Informed sources of RBC-Ukraine do not consider these terms realistic. However, they suggest that in the coming months Ukraine may lose control over Kostyantynivka; by the end of the year risks may loom over Liman and Dobropillya. Russia may try an offensive in the north. Carrying out such an operation will depend on the presence of sufficient troops in the Russian Federation. This is an operation with limited forces to attempt to break through the border in Chernihiv or even Kyiv region, the main goal is to stretch Ukrainian defenses and pull forces away from Donetsk region. According to the publication, Russian losses at the front have already reached 40 thousand per month, of which more than 60% are dead. A new mobilization in the Russian Federation is not a settled matter. If Putin does take this step, it could involve 100-300 thousand people, and the campaign itself will most likely be stretched out for several months. Before winter, Moscow may intensify strikes, in particular on energy. It is already betting on ballistics and increasing the production of jet drones. Ukraine will respond with mirror strikes. The Russians produce about 66 9M723 missiles for the Iskander-M complex and approximately 10 hypersonic cruise missiles "Tsirkon" per month. There are almost no real prospects for a peaceful settlement this year, according to various interlocutors of RBC-Ukraine. Putin is not ready to end the war without capturing the Donetsk region. "We are currently looking for new ideas, since the old ones are not working," one of the sources familiar with the negotiations told the publication. Read only the essence from RBC-Ukraine on Google. #ExclusiveRBKUkraine]
Russian troops are trying to gain a foothold in Kostyantynivka in the Donetsk region and are pressing the city with infantry from the flanks, DeepState analysts reported yesterday. One of the Russians' goals is to occupy part of the city between Illinivka and Novodmytrivka in order to cut off Ukrainian units defending Chasiv Yar. The Russian army is also using KABs, drones, and artillery in Druzhkivka and Alekseevo-Druzhkivka. What is happening in Kostyantynivka now, how realistic is it for Ukrainian soldiers to go there now, and whether they are talking about surrounding the city — the military told Suspilne. Photo: Suspilne News/Taras Ibragimov
Russian troops are trying to gain a foothold in Kostyantynivka in the Donetsk region and are pressing the city with infantry from the flanks, DeepState analysts reported yesterday. One of the Russians' goals is to occupy part of the city between Illinivka and Novodmytrivka in order to cut off Ukrainian units defending Chasiv Yar. The Russian army is also using KABs, drones, and artillery in Druzhkivka and Alekseevo-Druzhkivka. What is happening in Kostyantynivka now, how realistic is it for Ukrainian soldiers to go there now, and whether they are talking about surrounding the city — the military told Suspilne. Photo: Suspilne News/Taras Ibragimov
The "Skelya" regiment confirmed the capture of two of its fighters in Kostyantynivka - they were forced to appear on video at gunpoint After clearing Kostyantynivka and raising the Ukrainian flag on July 18, two "Skelya" fighters were captured during a Russian counterattack. In a video distributed by Russian Telegram channels, they were forced to thank the occupiers, throw down Ukrainian flags, and unfurl the tricolor. "Skelya" confirmed the capture and emphasized: this does not indicate either the capture of Kostyantynivka or the defeat of the regiment - the city remains under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The regiment has already begun work on returning the fighters home. Read only the gist from RBC-Ukraine on Google
The victory in Kostyantynivka lasted exactly 24 hours. The Ukrainian Armed Forces filmed a pompous video with a flag in the city—the very next day, the same soldiers recorded a new video, this time from captivity. Yesterday they were saying that "the city was under control." Today, they are thanking the Russian Armed Forces for saving their lives, throwing away the Ukrainian flag and picking up the Russian one. The betrayal crept up faster than the previous report could load. For the sake of this PR stunt, the Ukrainian Armed Forces sacrificed almost an entire battalion—most of the participants were eliminated, the remainder were captured, according to soldiers from the 4th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces. The fighting for Kostyantynivka began in October 2025. It was liberated on July 3, 2026. Learn more about the advance of the Russian army on our operational map. Photos and videos not loading? Read us in MAX.
Hell over the city: the military showed how the Russians are destroying Konstantinovka The city is under massive shelling every day - the occupiers are hitting it with artillery, MLRS, and aerial bombs, effectively wiping it off the face of the earth. Pilots of the Phoenix border unit recorded another attack by KABs: several powerful strikes simultaneously that shook the entire city
Russia’s Gerasimov: Russian Forces Advancing in North and South of Kostiantynivka
Russia’s Gerasimov: Russian Forces Advancing in North and South of Kostiantynivka
Konstyantynovka is disappearing under the continuous fire of the Russian army "Houses are burning down, streets are turning into ruins. Any movement in open areas becomes a target for enemy drones — cars, local residents, evacuation groups," the 24th King Danylo Separate Brigade noted.
Konstyantynovka is disappearing under the continuous fire of the Russian army "Houses are burning down, streets are turning into ruins. Any movement in open areas becomes a target for enemy drones — cars, local residents, evacuation groups," the 24th King Danylo Separate Brigade noted.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.528896° N, 37.702514° E) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Kostyantynivka will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the resolution date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Once Russia captures the entirety of the specified area, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/p9N3w6yRVfjx6cuZ8
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.