When will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast?December 31
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Odds now
The market prices a 1% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES1¢
NO99¢
as of
What moved the odds?
7 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
FWD from Public Donbas: The Russian command has again changed the deadline for the complete capture of the territory of the Donetsk region. The new deadline has been moved to the end of March 2027, said Deputy Head of the Operational Command Pavlo Palis. Previously, the Russian Federation wanted to capture the Donetsk region by the end of 2026.
Russia has set a new deadline for seizing Donetsk region, - Palisa The Russian political leadership wants to completely occupy the Donetsk region by the end of 2026. At the same time, the Russian military, according to the deputy head of the OP Pavel Palisa, is asking to postpone the deadline to March 31, 2027. Palisa also spoke about the Russian Federation's use of jet drones and stated that Ukraine is already working on means to intercept them. Read only the gist from RBC-Ukraine on Google.
Putin will not be able to capture Donbas before 2032, — ISW Putin has ordered his generals to capture Donetsk region by the end of the year — this is the 15th announced deadline since the beginning of the war, according to a report by the American Institute for the Study of War. Analysts believe that this deadline is a consequence of his illusions about the real situation on the front. The Russian General Staff systematically lies to Putin about the real situation on the front line, so he is confident that Russian troops are able to conquer Donbas soon — and therefore, there is no need to make any compromises with Kiev. ISW also expresses skepticism about the implementation of Putin's goals even after the deadline, indicating that at the current pace of progress, Russia will not be able to capture Donetsk region by 2032 — if at all. Add News.LIVE as a source of reliable news on Google
Putin is not ready to make significant compromises to end the war against Ukraine, - ISW After a meeting with American envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, the Kremlin stated that the Russian Federation remains committed to achieving all declared military goals. ISW notes that Putin is overestimating the successes of the Russian army on the front, which may increase his confidence in the ability to capture the entire Donetsk region. At the current pace of Russian advancement, according to ISW, it would take until 2032 to capture the rest of the Donetsk region. Read only the gist from RBC-Ukraine on Google.
The Russian Army asks the Kremlin to move the deadline for Donbas to spring 2027, - Palisa According to the deputy head of the OP, the Donbas issue remains one of the key ones in political negotiations. The Russian political leadership has set the military the task of reaching the administrative borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The Kremlin wants to accomplish it by December 31, 2026. At the same time, the Russian military leadership assesses the task differently. The military convinces the Russian political leadership that the set deadline is unrealistic. Read only the gist from RBC-Ukraine on Google.
Zelensky's claim about Russia's plan to completely capture Donetsk in 2027 Claiming that Russia is seeking to attract hundreds of thousands of new forces to continue the war, the Ukrainian president announced the possibility of Moscow's military operation to capture the remaining parts of the Donetsk region in 2027. Read the full text in the link below... @Nournews_ir
In the coming months, Ukraine may lose control over Kostyantynivka. And the same risk may loom over Lyman and Dobropillya by the end of the year, - RBC-Ukraine sources in military-political circles According to the interlocutors, if events develop unfavorably by the end of winter, Russian troops may come very close to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. At the same time, according to the Kremlin's plans, the Russian army should reach the administrative border of the Donetsk region by the end of the year. However, RBC-Ukraine sources doubt that Russia will be able to achieve this goal even in 2027. Read only the essence from RBC-Ukraine on Google. #ExclusiveRBKUkraine [in reply to: Ballistic terror and a trap for Putin: what is Russia planning and is a truce possible this year The pace of the Russian offensive has decreased. This year they are several times lower than in similar periods of previous years, and even lower than they were in winter. The greatest threat remains in the Donetsk region. Moscow still plans to take it by the end of this year. Informed sources of RBC-Ukraine do not consider these terms realistic. However, they suggest that in the coming months Ukraine may lose control over Kostyantynivka; by the end of the year risks may loom over Liman and Dobropillya. Russia may try an offensive in the north. Carrying out such an operation will depend on the presence of sufficient troops in the Russian Federation. This is an operation with limited forces to attempt to break through the border in Chernihiv or even Kyiv region, the main goal is to stretch Ukrainian defenses and pull forces away from Donetsk region. According to the publication, Russian losses at the front have already reached 40 thousand per month, of which more than 60% are dead. A new mobilization in the Russian Federation is not a settled matter. If Putin does take this step, it could involve 100-300 thousand people, and the campaign itself will most likely be stretched out for several months. Before winter, Moscow may intensify strikes, in particular on energy. It is already betting on ballistics and increasing the production of jet drones. Ukraine will respond with mirror strikes. The Russians produce about 66 9M723 missiles for the Iskander-M complex and approximately 10 hypersonic cruise missiles "Tsirkon" per month. There are almost no real prospects for a peaceful settlement this year, according to various interlocutors of RBC-Ukraine. Putin is not ready to end the war without capturing the Donetsk region. "We are currently looking for new ideas, since the old ones are not working," one of the sources familiar with the negotiations told the publication. Read only the essence from RBC-Ukraine on Google. #ExclusiveRBKUkraine]
Where does the news lean?
3YES10NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia militarily captures the entirety of Donetsk Oblast between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Donetsk Oblast will be considered captured when the entirety of the below-specified municipalities is simultaneously shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant municipalities in Donetsk Oblast that must be simultaneously captured in their entirety are: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Pokrovsk, Dobropillia, Oleksandrivka, Cherkaske, and Sviatohirsk.
The boundaries of each municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. If all area within a municipality is shaded under a qualifying layer, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of unshaded area along the border of the municipality, this may still qualify.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify:
- Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain
- Assessed Russian Advances
Shading under the following layers will not qualify:
- Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas
- Claimed Russian Territory
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will not qualify, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. Similarly, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Control must be established through military conquest.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
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