When will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast?

Russia lost more territory in Ukraine in September than in any month since June 2023 — Black Bird Group The area of Ukrainian territory estimated by Black Bird Group to be under Russian control shrank by approximately 190 square kilometers in September. This represents Russia's largest net territorial loss in a single month since June 2023, according to data from a Finnish OSINT project. Details. This dynamic was primarily the result of Ukrainian counterattacks in the Liman area and in the direction of Komar in the western part of the Donetsk region, according to an analysis by Black Bird Group. Black Bird Group considers both Ukrainian operations successful. According to the project's assessment, they also demonstrate how fluid the front line remains in 2026, despite the slow pace of advancement on both sides: "Both Ukraine and Russia are conducting relatively slow offensive operations under conditions of intensive drone use." The Ukrainian army also achieved local successes in the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions, and now in the north of the Donetsk region, writes Black Bird Group. In turn, the Russian offensive toward Kramatorsk and Slovyansk has slowed, according to the project's analysis. Overall, according to Black Bird Group data, Russian advances have been extremely limited in all directions this year: some success was achieved toward Kramatorsk, while the offensive has largely stalled in other areas. Some of the Russian territorial losses that Black Bird Group attributes to September most likely occurred in previous months, the project itself writes. Specifically, Operation Vivaldi in the Liman area continued throughout the summer, but the main evidence and public reports about it only emerged in the fall. This is partly due to coordinated efforts to conceal the scale of the operation. Significance. Russia is increasingly moving away from achieving its goals, according to the project's analysts. They estimate that a complete takeover of the Donetsk region by 2027 is becoming increasingly unlikely. Recent weeks have shown that Russia has launched a winter campaign of long-range strikes. It is unlikely to achieve political concessions, but it could force Ukraine to shift resources away from the front, writes Black Bird Group. Russia is apparently testing the systems and mechanisms that might be needed to conduct a mobilization, but it is still unclear whether a decision has been made or what its scale might be, according to Black Bird Group. According to the project's assessment, the formation of a new troop group could allow Moscow to resume its offensive in northern Ukraine. Estimates from other OSINT projects. The fact that the Russian military lost more territory in September than it gained is also confirmed by calculations from the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW). According to the project's analysis, over the past month, Russian forces have lost control of more than 80 square kilometers. According to a revised estimate by the DeepState project, which is affiliated with the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, the area of territory under Russian control increased by 154 square kilometers in September. The project initially estimated the increase at only 66 square kilometers, but subsequently revised its estimate. DeepState cautions that this estimate is not final: information on Ukrainian advances is published with a delay, and another 270-320 square kilometers of territory liberated in July-September are not yet reflected in the statistics. According to data from the Polish project Rochan Consulting, in September, Russia captured approximately 361 square kilometers but lost 126 square kilometers. The project called this the largest net territorial gain for the Russian army since April. The project estimates that Russia continues to advance, facing successful local counterattacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Most of the territory captured by Russia is in the Dobropillya, Velykyi Burluki, Kramatorsk, and Kamyshevakha directions, the project writes. Context. On October 1, Vladimir Putin announced that Russian troops had more than doubled their advance in September, capturing 1,301 square kilometers in one month. Subscribe to "Agency" on Telegram / email newsletter

Russia believes it will need six months to occupy the entire Donbas – Zelensky According to Ukrainian intelligence, Russia considers the complete occupation of Donbas its minimum goal and expects to achieve it in about six months, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said. "He (Putin -IF-U) wants to occupy Donbas. He believes that his goal, the minimum goal, is to completely occupy Donbas, and he convinces his people, using information from intelligence, the military, especially military information, saying that we need one month, then two months, three months, and then six months to occupy Donbas," Zelensky said in an interview with CBS News. ...

FWD from Public Donbas: The Russian command has again changed the deadline for the complete capture of the territory of the Donetsk region. The new deadline has been moved to the end of March 2027, said Deputy Head of the Operational Command Pavlo Palis. Previously, the Russian Federation wanted to capture the Donetsk region by the end of 2026.

Russia has set a new deadline for seizing Donetsk region, - Palisa The Russian political leadership wants to completely occupy the Donetsk region by the end of 2026. At the same time, the Russian military, according to the deputy head of the OP Pavel Palisa, is asking to postpone the deadline to March 31, 2027. Palisa also spoke about the Russian Federation's use of jet drones and stated that Ukraine is already working on means to intercept them. Read only the gist from RBC-Ukraine on Google.

Palisa: Russia has set a new deadline for the capture of Donetsk region by the end of 2026 - beginning of 2027 The political leadership of the Russian Federation has set another deadline for the complete occupation of the Donetsk region by the end of 2026, while the Russian military is asking to move this deadline to March 31, 2027, Deputy Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Pavlo Palisa reported in his Telegram channel on Monday. According to Palisa, the enemy's plans and the reasons why they remain on paper were discussed during a meeting with the Head of the Office of the President, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Head of the GUR of the Ministry of Defense and the Commander of the Air Force with special envoys of the US President Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. ...

Putin will not be able to capture Donbas before 2032, — ISW Putin has ordered his generals to capture Donetsk region by the end of the year — this is the 15th announced deadline since the beginning of the war, according to a report by the American Institute for the Study of War. Analysts believe that this deadline is a consequence of his illusions about the real situation on the front. The Russian General Staff systematically lies to Putin about the real situation on the front line, so he is confident that Russian troops are able to conquer Donbas soon — and therefore, there is no need to make any compromises with Kiev. ISW also expresses skepticism about the implementation of Putin's goals even after the deadline, indicating that at the current pace of progress, Russia will not be able to capture Donetsk region by 2032 — if at all. Add News.LIVE as a source of reliable news on Google

Putin is not ready to make significant compromises to end the war against Ukraine, - ISW After a meeting with American envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, the Kremlin stated that the Russian Federation remains committed to achieving all declared military goals. ISW notes that Putin is overestimating the successes of the Russian army on the front, which may increase his confidence in the ability to capture the entire Donetsk region. At the current pace of Russian advancement, according to ISW, it would take until 2032 to capture the rest of the Donetsk region. Read only the gist from RBC-Ukraine on Google.

Putin has set his military the task of capturing Donbas by December 31 - Palisa The Kremlin has set the military leadership the task of reaching the administrative borders of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions by December 31 of this year, said Deputy Head of the Presidential Office Pavlo Palisa. As reported by an Interfax-Ukraine correspondent, he said this during a meeting with journalists. ...

The Russian Army asks the Kremlin to move the deadline for Donbas to spring 2027, - Palisa According to the deputy head of the OP, the Donbas issue remains one of the key ones in political negotiations. The Russian political leadership has set the military the task of reaching the administrative borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The Kremlin wants to accomplish it by December 31, 2026. At the same time, the Russian military leadership assesses the task differently. The military convinces the Russian political leadership that the set deadline is unrealistic. Read only the gist from RBC-Ukraine on Google.

Zelensky's claim about Russia's plan to completely capture Donetsk in 2027 Claiming that Russia is seeking to attract hundreds of thousands of new forces to continue the war, the Ukrainian president announced the possibility of Moscow's military operation to capture the remaining parts of the Donetsk region in 2027. Read the full text in the link below... @Nournews_ir

Putin plans to seize Donetsk and Luhansk regions, - Deputy Head of the GUR of the Ministry of Defense Vadym Skibitsky "Their plans are as follows and this is what they say: by the end of this year there will be no agreements and no signing of a peace agreement. Putin wants to achieve the goals he set for himself - these are, first of all, Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Their general staff plans to complete the seizure of Donetsk region by the end of this year," - said Major Skibitsky. #ExclusiveRBKUkraine Read only the gist from RBC-Ukraine on Google.

In the coming months, Ukraine may lose control over Kostyantynivka. And the same risk may loom over Lyman and Dobropillya by the end of the year, - RBC-Ukraine sources in military-political circles According to the interlocutors, if events develop unfavorably by the end of winter, Russian troops may come very close to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. At the same time, according to the Kremlin's plans, the Russian army should reach the administrative border of the Donetsk region by the end of the year. However, RBC-Ukraine sources doubt that Russia will be able to achieve this goal even in 2027. Read only the essence from RBC-Ukraine on Google. #ExclusiveRBKUkraine [in reply to: Ballistic terror and a trap for Putin: what is Russia planning and is a truce possible this year The pace of the Russian offensive has decreased. This year they are several times lower than in similar periods of previous years, and even lower than they were in winter. The greatest threat remains in the Donetsk region. Moscow still plans to take it by the end of this year. Informed sources of RBC-Ukraine do not consider these terms realistic. However, they suggest that in the coming months Ukraine may lose control over Kostyantynivka; by the end of the year risks may loom over Liman and Dobropillya. Russia may try an offensive in the north. Carrying out such an operation will depend on the presence of sufficient troops in the Russian Federation. This is an operation with limited forces to attempt to break through the border in Chernihiv or even Kyiv region, the main goal is to stretch Ukrainian defenses and pull forces away from Donetsk region. According to the publication, Russian losses at the front have already reached 40 thousand per month, of which more than 60% are dead. A new mobilization in the Russian Federation is not a settled matter. If Putin does take this step, it could involve 100-300 thousand people, and the campaign itself will most likely be stretched out for several months. Before winter, Moscow may intensify strikes, in particular on energy. It is already betting on ballistics and increasing the production of jet drones. Ukraine will respond with mirror strikes. The Russians produce about 66 9M723 missiles for the Iskander-M complex and approximately 10 hypersonic cruise missiles "Tsirkon" per month. There are almost no real prospects for a peaceful settlement this year, according to various interlocutors of RBC-Ukraine. Putin is not ready to end the war without capturing the Donetsk region. "We are currently looking for new ideas, since the old ones are not working," one of the sources familiar with the negotiations told the publication. Read only the essence from RBC-Ukraine on Google. #ExclusiveRBKUkraine]

Russians advance in Donetsk region – DeepState Russian occupation forces are advancing in the Donetsk region – in the Kalenkypy area (Kramatorsk district of Donetsk region) towards Sloviansk. This follows from DeepState maps in Telegram on Friday. "The map has been updated. The enemy has advanced near Kalenkypy," DeepState said in a message. ...

The Russian authorities are ready to return to negotiations with Ukraine after capturing the entire territory of the Donetsk region, which they hope to do by the end of 2026, Bloomberg reports. At the same time, the publication, citing sources close to the Russian Defense Ministry, writes that many representatives of the Russian army consider such plans unrealistic and are convinced that they will be able to take control of the Donetsk region only in 2027 subscribe

#Russia.. Ukrainian forces control about 86% of Donetsk #SkyOnline