When will Russia announce a new forced mobilization?September 30
ResolvedOutcome: No$163Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
7 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Top news for the day, September 18, 2026. Three-day elections have begun in Russia: turnout has already exceeded 21%, Putin voted online More than 3.5 million people work in the Russian defense industry, the president noted at the presentation of state awards to gunsmiths Putin ordered the expansion of the social gasification program to rural cultural centers The largest contract in the history of Russian civil aviation has been signed The Russian Armed Forces liberated Verolyubovka and Zolotoy Kolodez in the DPR The Kremlin denied claims of plans to conduct a covert mobilization of 300 thousand people The US sincerely wants to help in the Ukrainian settlement, Nebenzya told Vesti Director Zvyagintsev added to the register of foreign agents Foreign Ministry: Russia will not ignore violations of the interests of its economic operators in Armenia Moscow expanded the stop list for EU representatives in response to the 21st package of sanctions Peskov: divisions of Auchan and Nestle were transferred under external management because they are assets of unfriendly countries To stay up to date with the most important news: Website | MAX | Telegram
The Kremlin has denied rumors of plans to mobilize 300,000 troops by the end of the year. "There are no such plans," Peskov said in a commentary to RTVI On September 3, Putin stated that there is currently no scenario that would require mobilization. He called rumors of this an information attack by the enemy ahead of the State Duma elections. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android
Russia has no plans to mobilize 300,000 people by the end of the year after the elections, or by the end of 2026. This was stated by Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov on RTVI. This is how he responded to a report from the Bloomberg agency. “No. There are no such plans,” Peskov said. RBC app for iOS and Android
RBC channel on “Max”
Russia: Kremlin spokesman: Russia is not planning a secret mobilization of an additional 300,000 people by the end of the year.
The needs of the Russian Armed Forces are fully met by contract soldiers, and rumors of mobilization are a provocation, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev stated during a working visit to the Northwestern Federal District. He published a video on his page on Max. "We have no need for mobilization, because the pace of contract recruitment is exactly within the limits and even higher than the limits we expected for the beginning of September of this year. All this is a lie, a provocation, just to stir up the mood of the country, especially in the run-up to the elections." RBC app for iOS and Android RBC channel on Max
Rumors about mobilization in Russia are lies and provocations designed to "excite the population ahead of the State Duma elections," Dmitry Medvedev stated. "We have no need for mobilization, because the number of contract recruitments is exactly within the limits, and even above, those we anticipated for early September."
There is currently no scenario that would require mobilization in the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin stated at the plenary session of the Eastern Economic Forum. Rumors about mobilization are an information attack by the enemy ahead of the State Duma elections in an attempt to influence the outcome, the president emphasized. He noted that Russians voluntarily sign contracts for the Air Defense Forces, unlike in Ukraine, where people are forcibly dragged to the front. Ukrainian troops lose 8,000-12,000 men monthly, Putin said. Subscribe to SHOT in MAX:
Where does the news lean?
7YES10NO4neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, Russia formally announces either:
(i) a new compulsory military mobilization under the existing September 2022 mobilization framework, or an expansion of the categories of citizen to which that framework applies; or
(ii) the establishment or authorization of a new compulsory military mobilization outside the September 2022 mobilization framework.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying announcement must communicate such a mobilization as a new policy of the Russian State. A formal legal act (e.g., an executive decree) that establishes or authorizes a qualifying mobilization, or expands the categories of citizens subject to one, will qualify as an announcement. Routine military operations not framed as a new policy, or actions not evidenced by any formal act or announcement, will not qualify.
Qualifying actions include, but are not limited to:
announcing a new wave or phase of mobilization;
announcing the expansion of the categories or ages of citizens subject to compulsory mobilization;
announcing the authorization of compulsory mobilization call-ups of citizens not subject to compulsory mobilization prior to the authorization; or
Mandating a specific number of new call-ups.
The following will not qualify: ordinary conscription decrees; electronic summons or draft-register measures; increases to the authorized size of the Armed Forces; routine draft administration; contract-recruitment measures; or new financial recruitment incentives.
Reserve training assemblies conducted within the statutory duration limits of Federal Law No. 53-FZ "On Military Duty and Military Service" (Article 54), and special assemblies limited to citizens who have voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve will not qualify. However, a reserve-related measure, whether established through a new legal act or under an existing legal framework, will qualify if it is formally announced by the Russian State or established by a formal legal act and satisfies any of the following criteria:
authorizes or requires the deployment of compulsorily called-up reserve citizens to the zone of the "special military operation" or their assignment to combat formations;
permits compulsory retention of called-up citizens beyond the statutory duration limits that would otherwise apply to those citizens;
extends special-assembly-type compulsory service, or any comparable compulsory service obligation, to citizens of the inactive reserve (zapas) who have not voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve;
establishes any further new category of compulsory military service for reserve citizens
The primary resolution sources will be official legal acts and official announcements published or issued by the Russian State.
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