OpenAI’s Astra releasedSeptember 25
Open$3Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 93% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES93¢
NO8¢
as of
What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Over the summer, we have been sprinting on safety priorities; it's more important than ever for capabilities and safeguards to advance together. We have more to do but have made a lot of progress. We are also going to be launching our next model soon. • • There is an obvious tension here: on one hand, Astra is very good and we are excited to see what people will build with it. We are proud of our work. • • On the other hand, we are clearly in a phase of development where we believe caution is warranted, and we are pacing our progress to ensure that we can meet the safety standards required by new capability levels. • • Astra has been done training for a while now and is a significant step forward in both capabilities and alignment. For the models after that, we have been slowing things as needed to ensure that we can do sufficient work on safety and alignment. • • AI is getting extremely capable; no one fully understands the consequences of this. Managing the transition to a world with abundant and powerful AI to optimize for safety and benefits to people should be one of the highest priorities in the world. It is our highest priority at OpenAI. • • We have been living with the tension between being excited and anxious about progress for some time, and it is still discordant for us. We know it is much more discordant for other people. And yet, we believe strongly that the world needs to understand where AI is going and how models perform in the real world. More importantly, we believe the world will need aligned AI to manage the future phases of this transition. • • An iterative loop where society and this technology evolve together is what will lead to the highest chance of getting this right. • • So we hope you enjoy our new model, and we hope the world continues to take what’s happening in AI extremely seriously.
OpenAI to Launch Next-Generation Model 'Astra' Soon... Some Cybersecurity Features to Be Limited
OpenAI to Restrict Astra Model After Rating It 'Critical' Cyber Risk -- WSJ
Where does the news lean?
5YES2NO2neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 61% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
What would make this resolve YES?
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Related markets
See all outcomes for OpenAI’s Astra released — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.