August Inflation US - Monthly≥0.5%

ResolvedOutcome: NoVol$28KResolvedas of

Odds now

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

11 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .

NOcnbc96%match
Prices for a wide swath of goods and services continued to climb in August, according to a report Friday that raises the specter of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike next week. • • The consumer price index rose a seasonally adjusted 0.4% for the month, putting the 12-month increase at 3.4%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. Both readings were in line with the Dow Jones consensus. • • Full details:
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Inflation: CPI Remains Warm, Fed Rate Hike Looking More Likely Next Week. • The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) report today, showing inflation remains a bit hot, up 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis in August after rising 0.1% in July. Over the last 12 months, the index rose 3.4% before seasonal adjustments... Read More
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Here are the highlights of the US Consumer Price Index report for August: The Consumer Price Index rose by 0.4% compared to July, in line with expectations. More than a third of this increase came as a result of a 3.9% jump in gasoline prices. Housing costs also rose by 0.3%, the largest increase in three months. The core consumer price index, which excludes food and energy costs, climbed 0.3%. A surge in mobile phone service prices contributed significantly to this larger-than-expected increase, while airfares, used cars, and education also pushed the index higher. On an annual basis, the CPI rose by 3.4%, in line with expectations, while the core index increased by 2.4%, also in line with the median estimate and marking its smallest rise since the cost-of-living surge began in the spring of 2021. The boom in artificial intelligence investments was reflected in a 25.4% year-on-year increase in computer software and peripherals prices, the largest increase ever recorded. Preliminary calculations indicated that the proportion of goods and services categories that saw high increases, a measure that has been highlighted... Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's focus hasn't diminished this month. Inflation data released today reinforces the case for the Fed to raise interest rates on September 16. #Arabic_Business
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A rise in the core consumer price index increases pressure on the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in August (seasonally adjusted) during the month, bringing the annual increase rate to 3.4%. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, recorded a monthly increase of 0.3%, while the core annual rate was 2.4%. Swap contracts are pricing in a 90% probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points next week, compared to 70% previously. #Arabic_Business
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Following inflation data, swap contracts are pricing in a 90% probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike next week, compared to 70% previously. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in August (seasonally adjusted) for the month, bringing the annual increase to 3.4%. The core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month, while the core annual rate was 2.4%. #Arabic_Business
The U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% month-over-month in August.
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US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rises in August in line with expectations The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in August (seasonally adjusted) for the month, bringing the annual increase to 3.4%. The core CPI rose 0.3% for the month, while the core annual rate was 2.4%. #Arabic_Business
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US CPI: Inflation Comes In Hotter Than Expected • • August US inflation data delivered a firmer-than-expected headline reading, adding another complication to the Federal Reserve outlook. • • Headline CPI rose 0.396% M/M on an unrounded basis, effectively 0.4%, compared with expectations of around 0.39%. • • The bigger surprise came from core CPI, which increased 0.290% M/M, versus expectations of around 0.22% and up from 0.215% in the previous month. • • On a year-over-year basis: • • Headline CPI: 3.397% • Core CPI: 2.446%, down from 2.478% previously • • The composition is important. Headline inflation is running above 3%, while monthly core inflation accelerated materially. That combination makes the path toward easier monetary policy more difficult, particularly against a backdrop of elevated energy prices and geopolitical risk.
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US INFLATION ACCELERATES — FED HIKE RISK RISES • • US inflation picked up in August, strengthening the case for another Fed rate hike next week. • • Headline CPI rose 0.4% M/M and 3.4% Y/Y, while core CPI increased 0.3% M/M. Gasoline was a key driver, with oil back above $100/barrel adding to inflation concerns. • • Markets had been pricing roughly a 70% chance of a 25bp hike ahead of the report. • • Higher inflation + resilient employment + elevated oil prices = increasing pressure on the Fed to tighten.
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US inflation accelerated to 0.4% month-on-month in August from 0.1% in July, in line with expectations.
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US CPI rose 0.4% in August compared to the previous month (Reuters forecast a 0.4% increase).

Where does the news lean?

0YES12NO6neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.

Past moves on this market

Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.

How did this market resolve?

This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in August 2026 according to the monthly BLS report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

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