Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in August? Odds fell to 0% on Sep 11, 2026

ResolvedMove

Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in August? On , the market’s odds fell from 10¢ to 0.1¢ (-9.9 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Walter Bloomberg. The market has since resolved.

How did the odds move?

At match10¢
+5m9.5¢
+30m15¢
+1h0.1¢
1h move-9.9 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

NoWalter Bloomberg95%match
CPI SET TO DECIDE NEXT WEEK’S FED HIKE • • Markets currently price a 61% chance of a 25-bp Fed hike on September 16, versus 39% for a hold, according to Kalshi. • • With consensus expecting 0.2% core and 0.4% headline CPI M/M, Friday’s inflation print could sharply swing those odds. The 10-year Treasury yield near 4.95% adds to the stakes, putting the critical 5% level within reach. •

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$28K

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Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in August? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for August Inflation US - Monthly — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.