Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by August 31?Mojtaba Khamenei
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The market prices a 0% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
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17 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Major changes at the top of the security establishment strengthen the influence of hardliners. The Wall Street Journal reports that Mojtaba Khamenei intends to escalate tensions with the United States. ===== Analysts, speaking to the Wall Street Journal, believe that the top security changes in Iran indicate Mojtaba Khamenei's intention to pursue a more confrontational approach. The recent changes represent the largest reshuffle at the top since Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the position of Supreme Leader. Khamenei appointed six senior officials in the General Staff, the Revolutionary Guard, and the Basij militia, most notably Ahmad Vahidi as commander of the Revolutionary Guard. The Wall Street Journal describes Vahidi as one of the most prominent opponents of making any concessions to the United States. The appointment of Mohsen Rezaei as the Supreme Leader's representative and secretary of the Supreme National Security Council may strengthen his influence in security and military decision-making, according to The newspaper Rezaei refuses to make concessions regarding the Strait of Hormuz and affirms that Tehran will not accept any waterway not under its direct control From Al Arabiya
Questions arise about Mojtaba Khamenei's absence from the scene... Trump says there's a 90% chance he's been killed, and Pezeshkian is the only Iranian official who has announced meeting with him.
Mojtaba Khamenei has not been seen in public since his appointment as Supreme Leader of Iran, and Trump estimates there is a 90% chance he is dead... Conflicting accounts surround his fate.
Shortly after the statement attributed to Mojtaba Khamenei, rejecting negotiations and emphasizing the continuation of the war, Shariatmadari, his representative in Kayhan, called for the trial of opponents of the war as the enemy's fifth column. At the same time, a member of parliament warned that the United States wants to launch a ground attack on Iran from three directions. Report by Mojtaba Pourmohsen
Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi, who is leading the negotiations with Khamenei: I have not met Mojtaba Khamenei since eight
Urgent Statement from Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, Supreme Leader of Iran, in light of the recent escalation: The violation of the Memorandum of Understanding has once again proven that the signature of the US President is worthless and untrustworthy. The Iranian people will teach the American enemy a lesson they will never forget.
The Supreme Leader in hiding until the end of the war... When will Mojtaba Khamenei appear in public? An Iranian official confirms to TASS that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is completely out of the public eye as long as the war continues. "Strict security measures prevent the Iranian Supreme Leader from appearing in public in the foreseeable future." Mojtaba Khamenei's return to public life is entirely dependent on the cessation of escalation and the stabilization of the situation. Increasing questions and speculations surround the disappearance of the Iranian Supreme Leader as military operations continue. CNN: Sharp divisions and escalating factional conflict within the Iranian regime following the ceasefire agreement with the US. Anger over the US-Iranian confrontation is turning into an internal struggle in Tehran between a hardline faction that rejects compromise and leaders seeking to manage the new phase. #From_the_Event
The Supreme Leader in hiding until the end of the war... When will Mojtaba Khamenei appear in public? An Iranian official confirms to TASS that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is completely out of the public eye as long as the war continues. "Strict security measures prevent the Iranian Supreme Leader from appearing in public in the foreseeable future." Mojtaba Khamenei's return to public life is entirely dependent on the cessation of escalation and the stabilization of the situation. Increasing questions and speculations surround the disappearance of the Iranian Supreme Leader as military operations continue. CNN: Sharp divisions and escalating factional infighting within the Iranian regime following the ceasefire agreement with the US. Anger over the US-Iranian confrontation is turning into an internal struggle in Tehran between a hardline faction that rejects compromise and leaders seeking to manage the new phase. From Al Arabiya
Iranian official: Mojtaba Khamenei will not appear in public until the war with America ends.
Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei will not appear in public until the conflict with the United States and Israel is over, an Iranian source told TASS. According to him, the government is waiting for the situation to normalize. It is noted that Mojtaba Khamenei's first international contact could be a phone call or meeting with Vladimir Putin. Subscribe to Kommersant on MAX | on Telegram
Iranian official: Mojtaba Khamenei will not appear in public until the war with America ends.
Iranian senior official: "Mojtaba Khamenei will not appear in public until the war is over"
Iranian official: Mojtaba Khamenei will not appear in public until the war with America ends.
Iranian official: Mojtaba Khamenei will not appear in public until the war with America ends.
Iranian official: Mojtaba Khamenei will not appear in public until the war with America ends.
Iranian official: Mojtaba Khamenei will not appear in public until the war with America ends.
TASS: Mojtaba Khamenei will not appear in public until the war with the US and Israel ends, an Iranian source told TASS.
Where does the news lean?
0YES27NO3neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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