Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?Marco Rubio
ResolvedOutcome: No$162Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
12 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
The US Secretary of State, on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit in Manila, repeated his previous statements that "Iran is not ready for an agreement," saying, "They will pay the price for this." Marco Rubio said on Thursday, August 2, "The cost to Iran is increasing every night until they come to their senses," and added, "Despite Iran's audacity, they are suffering greatly, and this suffering will continue." The US Secretary of State also expressed hope that the Iranian government would be ready to agree "probably soon," but emphasized that they are clearly not ready for an agreement at the moment, "at least not an agreement that they are willing to accept." In response to a question about Donald Trump's recent statements about Iran paying a price for the deaths of American soldiers and attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, Rubio also said that Trump's policy is "a head for an eye and "Iran will pay a heavy price."
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Marco Rubio Says Iran Is 'Not Ready' To Make a Deal, Threatens With Further Escalation 'Every Night'. • Secretary of State Marco Rubio said strikes against Iran will continue to escalate until Tehran is ready to make a deal "they are willing to live by."
Live: Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Thursday that the United States would continue to strike Iran until its leadership was serious about making a deal. “The problem with Iran is every time they make a deal, the people that are in charge there, they either break it or they want to change it,” Rubio told reporters during a visit to the Philippines.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on the sidelines of the ASEAN Foreign Ministers' meeting that the Islamic Republic does not appear to be ready to reach an agreement. He added: "If this trend continues, Tehran will pay a heavy price." More details with Ahmad Samadi, Iran International correspondent
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that the Islamic Republic is clearly not ready to reach an agreement that it can adhere to, and that the US will increase the cost of the Islamic Republic's actions every night with nightly strikes until it changes its approach.
He said on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit in Manila that Islamic Republic officials violate any agreement or seek to change its terms after signing it, which shows that they are not ready to reach an agreement. He said: "They will be ready to agree soon, because the cost they are paying is very high."
The US Secretary of State also rejected media reports about disagreements among US government officials over Iran, saying that US President Donald Trump is the main negotiator and that members of his team play different roles depending on the issue.
The US Secretary of State said that the Islamic Republic is clearly not ready for an agreement to which it will adhere. Marco Rubio emphasized that the US will increase the cost of the Islamic Republic's actions every night with nightly attacks until it changes its approach.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit in Manila that the memorandum of understanding with the Islamic Republic was based on adherence to commitments, but Tehran violated it and as a result, the agreement is no longer valid. Reported by Alireza Mohebi, Iran International correspondent
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that the memorandum of understanding with the Islamic Republic was based on adherence to commitments, but Tehran violated it and as a result, the agreement is no longer valid. He added that the memorandum included the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and ensuring freedom of navigation, and the Islamic Republic should have issued a statement about this about a week and a half ago, but on the same day a ship was attacked. The US Secretary of State also said that Washington continues to support diplomacy and a negotiated solution, but it seems that the Islamic Republic is not serious about this at the moment. Rubio added that China also opposes the Islamic Republic's actions in the Strait of Hormuz and the imposition of tariffs on the passage of ships. According to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the Islamic Republic is facing serious economic problems and Iranian citizens are facing high inflation and a sharp increase in food prices.
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US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that the agreement with the Islamic Republic was based on adherence to commitments, but Tehran violated it and as a result, the agreement is no longer valid. He added that the agreement included the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and ensuring freedom of navigation, and the Islamic Republic should have issued a statement about this about a week and a half ago, but on the same day a ship was attacked. The US Secretary of State also said that Washington continues to support diplomacy and a negotiated solution, but it seems that the Islamic Republic is not serious about this at the moment. Rubio added that China also opposes the Islamic Republic's actions in the Strait of Hormuz and imposing tariffs on the passage of ships. According to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the Islamic Republic is facing serious economic problems and Iranian citizens are facing high inflation and a sharp increase in food prices.
Iran Reportedly Sent The U.S. a Ceasefire Proposal. Marco Rubio Says Tehran Is 'Not Serious' About Talks. • Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the U.S. continues to be committed to pursuing diplomatic ways to end the war in Iran, but claimed Tehran is "not serious about talks."
Live: Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Iranian officials had reached out to the United States to try to negotiate a solution to the current renewal of fighting, but that American officials are skeptical about the efficacy of the talks because their Iranian counterparts “have not kept their commitments.”
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that Washington remains ready to negotiate and resolve differences with the Islamic Republic, but Tehran is not showing a serious approach in the negotiations. Rubio said that if diplomacy fails, the United States will take action to protect its interests and those of its allies. He stressed that the United States still prefers a diplomatic solution, but if negotiations fail, it will not hesitate to defend the interests and security of its allies.
Where does the news lean?
1YES16NO8neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity.
The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify.
The listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement.
Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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