Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by August 31?Marco Rubio
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Odds now
The market prices a 0% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
6 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Marco Rubio Says Iran Is 'Not Ready' To Make a Deal, Threatens With Further Escalation 'Every Night'. • Secretary of State Marco Rubio said strikes against Iran will continue to escalate until Tehran is ready to make a deal "they are willing to live by."
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that the Islamic Republic is clearly not ready to reach an agreement that it can adhere to, and that the US will increase the cost of the Islamic Republic's actions every night with nightly strikes until it changes its approach.
He said on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit in Manila that Islamic Republic officials violate any agreement or seek to change its terms after signing it, which shows that they are not ready to reach an agreement. He said: "They will be ready to agree soon, because the cost they are paying is very high."
The US Secretary of State also rejected media reports about disagreements among US government officials over Iran, saying that US President Donald Trump is the main negotiator and that members of his team play different roles depending on the issue.
The US Secretary of State said that the Islamic Republic is clearly not ready for an agreement to which it will adhere. Marco Rubio emphasized that the US will increase the cost of the Islamic Republic's actions every night with nightly attacks until it changes its approach.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit in Manila that the memorandum of understanding with the Islamic Republic was based on adherence to commitments, but Tehran violated it and as a result, the agreement is no longer valid. Reported by Alireza Mohebi, Iran International correspondent
US Secretary of State: Memorandum of Understanding with Iran is no longer enforceable Marco Rubio: The memorandum of understanding with Iran stipulated the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and free shipping, and Iran was supposed to issue a statement. But that day they targeted a ship and attacked it. What is happening now is clear; ships are trying to pass through the Strait of Hormuz but are being attacked by the Iranians. Agreements are based on compliance with the rules, and we had an understanding with Iran that they then violated and it is no longer enforceable. @Farsna - Link
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio accused Iran of not being serious about negotiations. Rubio said the blockade of the international waterway had set a dangerous precedent that could be repeated in other parts of the world, including Asia. He added that international trade rules were also at risk—"this cannot be allowed to happen." It was previously reported that the US military had completed another wave of strikes against Iran. At the same time, Iran's military command stated that if the US struck the country's nuclear facilities, Tehran would attack all "interests" of the US and its allies in the region.
Where does the news lean?
11YES17NO15neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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