Israeli Legislative Election WinnerLikud
Open$112Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 48% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES48¢
NO53¢
as of
What moved the odds?
5 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
"We will lose the elections unless something changes," the Israeli prime minister says, adding that he believes his Likud party is in a worse position than the polls suggest, and admitting a loss of 10 seats. Netanyahu says in closed-door talks that his party will lose the upcoming parliamentary elections "unless something changes." According to the Israeli Broadcasting Corporation
Likud falls to its lowest level, Eisenkot surpasses Netanyahu. A poll conducted by the Lazar Institute and published in Maariv newspaper: Likud would win 20 seats in the Knesset, a loss of 12 seats from its current representation.
Netanyahu in second place; new list and internal party elections did not change Likud's position The results of the latest Kantar poll, which was broadcast on Channel 11 of the Israeli television, indicate that Gadi Eisenkot, the head of the Yashar party, continues to lead in the Knesset election race.
According to this poll, if the Knesset elections were held today, the Yashar party, led by Eisenkot, would become the largest party in the Knesset by winning 24 seats. IRNA @IRIBNEWS_COM
Poll: Israeli Opposition Maintains Majority Against Netanyahu's Coalition The poll, published by Channel 13, showed that Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party and Gadi Eisenkot's Yesh Atid party are tied at 23 seats each. Eisenkot leads Netanyahu in the race for prime minister with 47% of respondents favoring him compared to 36%. 43% of respondents believed that the main purpose of Netanyahu's recent visit to the United States was "electoral."
Maariv poll gives Israeli opposition a majority to form a government The Israeli opposition wins 62 seats in the Knesset compared to 48 for Netanyahu's bloc The poll shows the opposition surpassing the 61-seat threshold needed to form a government for the first time in 9 months Netanyahu's Likud party drops to 22 seats, tied with Eisenkot's Yesh Atid party 55 percent of Israelis doubt the government's ability to make sound decisions until the elections The poll comes hours after the Knesset voted to dissolve itself and set a date for early elections
Where does the news lean?
2YES13NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
What would make this resolve YES?
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose candidate list received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Israeli Knesset.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
The following rules govern the merging, joint contention, and splitting of listed parties:
- If Likud or Together (or any successor party created through a merger) merge with or contest the election jointly with any other party, the option corresponding to Likud or Together will represent the resultant candidate list or merged party.
Otherwise:
- If a listed party merges with, or contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with, one or more unlisted parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the listed party will represent all seats won by the merged party or joint candidate list. If a listed party merges with, or contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with, one or more other listed parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the party which held the most seats in the prior Knesset will represent all seats won by the merged party/joint candidate list. If these rules do not adequately determine which option represents a merged party or joint candidate list, the listed party whose name, as listed in this market, comes first in alphabetical order, will represent all seats won by the merged party or joint candidate list.
- If a listed party splits into multiple parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the listed party will represent the resulting party that holds the greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of the split. If these rules do not adequately determine which party represents a listed option after a split, the listed option will represent all seats won by the party resulting from the split whose primary English name comes first in alphabetical order.
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