When will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza?December 31
Open$103Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 11% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES11¢
NO89¢
as of
Where does the news lean?
1YES1NO1neutraltrailing 24h
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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