When will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza?
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Market pricing makes December 31 the favorite at 11% across 5 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
6 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Will Israel abide by the draft agreement proposed by Trump regarding Gaza?
By the way, we are still waiting for victory in Gaza, it has not yet been achieved if anyone has any doubts.
Hamas and Israel move towards phase two of US-backed Gaza plan
Hamas and Israel move towards phase two of US-backed Gaza plan
BREAKING: Israel army chief says troop withdrawal line in Gaza is 'new border' LIVE updates:
BREAKING: Israel army chief says troop withdrawal line in Gaza is 'new border' LIVE updates:
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza between May 5, 9:00 PM ET, and May 13, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.