When will Iran target Saudi Arabia?September 30
ResolvedOutcome: No$12Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
8 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Statement from the Yemeni Armed Forces regarding the targeting of sensitive targets in the Saudi enemy capital, Riyadh, and the targeting of Aramco in Yanbu with a large number of ballistic and cruise missiles and drones - September 19, 2026 Statement issued by the Yemeni Armed Forces In the name of God, the Most Gracious, the Most Merciful
God Almighty said: {So whoever transgresses against you, then transgress against him in the same way that he transgressed against you.} God Almighty has spoken the truth. In response to the great slander of accusing Yemen, the land of faith and wisdom, of targeting Mecca, and in defense of it against the insult of the modern-day Qarun, the horn of Satan, the Najdi Saudi. And in response to the continued aggression of the criminal Saudi enemy against our dear people With its F-15 and Typhoon warplanes, which take off from the Khamis Mushait and Taif bases, the Saudi-led coalition has carried out 732 airstrikes to date, resulting in civilian casualties and destruction of civilian infrastructure. In response to the Saudi enemy's attempts to target the capital, Sana'a, using ISIS-style tactics, including indiscriminate bombings targeting civilians, the Yemeni Armed Forces conducted two significant military operations using a large number of ballistic and cruise missiles and drones. The first targeted sensitive locations in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, and the second targeted Aramco facilities in Yanbu. The two operations, by the grace of God Almighty, were successful and resulted in massive fires in the targeted locations. The Yemeni Armed Forces affirm that the false propaganda disseminated by the Saudi enemy media, claiming that we are targeting civilians, is baseless. Any such claims are merely the result of failed interceptions by the Saudi enemy's defenses. The Yemeni Armed Forces will continue to enforce the equation of siege for siege and escalation for escalation, targeting Saudi enemy troop concentrations until the aggression ceases and the siege on our beloved country is lifted. God is sufficient for us, and He is the best of guardians, the best of protectors, and the best of helpers. Long live Yemen, free, dignified, and independent!
Victory to Yemen and to all free people! The Nation.
Sana'a, 8 Rabi' al-Thani 1448 AH
Corresponding to 19 September 2026 AD. Issued by the Yemeni Armed Forces [in reply to: An important statement from the Yemeni Armed Forces announcing large-scale military operations deep inside Saudi Arabia, at 8:00 PM.]
The Saudi enemy's slander against our people by claiming to have targeted Mecca is "a huge, ugly, and heinous lie, and a blatant and egregious falsehood." — Leader, September 17, 2026
A comparison of satellite images from 2025 and September 13, 2026, shows damage to Saudi Arabia's East-West Oil Pipeline after a drone attack on Thursday, September 10. Saudi officials said oil shipments through the vital pipeline, which helps ease pressure from disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, were temporarily halted following a drone attack attributed to Iraq.
On Saturday, September 11, Masoud Pezzekian, the head of the Islamic Republic, said in an interview with the India Today television channel on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in New Delhi: "The Islamic Republic is not at war with Saudi Arabia." Pezzekian's statements came after a drone attack on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and its temporary closure by Riyadh; Saudi Arabia and Iraq have announced that the attack was carried out from Iraqi soil.
Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Energy announced on Friday, September 10, that the "East-West" oil pipeline (located in the Riyadh and Medina regions) was targeted by several attacks on Thursday morning.
The statement said that following the attacks, oil transfer operations on the pipeline were suspended as a precaution.
The incident also resulted in injuries to a number of people who were provided with necessary medical services and care.
@VahidOOnLine
The Saudi Foreign Ministry announced that the country's East-West oil pipeline was targeted by drones launched from Iraq.
The Saudi Foreign Ministry added that at this stage, it had decided not to take retaliatory action at the request of the Iraqi Prime Minister.
@VahidOOnLine
Reuters reported that Baghdad had ordered the closure of the Shalamcheh border crossing between Iraq and Iran.
Two Iraqi security sources told the news agency that Iraq had used the crossing as a precautionary measure. The border crossing is closed as a precaution following a drone attack originating in Iraq on Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline.
The Shalamcheh border crossing is one of the main land routes between Iran and Iraq.
According to reports, the drone fired at Saudi Arabia was fired from Iraq's Maysan province. The province is in southeastern Iraq and borders Iran, and its administrative center is the city of Amara.
@VahidHeadline
Reuters wrote: According to the two sources, a large-scale operation is underway to track down and prosecute the perpetrators of the attack on Saudi Arabia.
@VahidOOnLine @VahidOnline
Iraq closed the Shalamcheh border crossing with Iran as a precaution after a drone attack on a Saudi oil pipeline, two security sources told Reuters. According to the sources, Iraqi forces have simultaneously launched a large-scale operation to identify and track down the perpetrators of the attack. Iraqi authorities have not yet released further details about the operation. Saudi Arabia announced on Friday, September 10, that its strategic East-West pipeline had been targeted by drones launched from Iraqi territory. The East-West pipeline transports oil from eastern Saudi Arabia to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea coast and is one of the country's main oil export routes.
Qatar strongly condemns the targeting of the East-West pipeline in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Doha | September 11, 2026 The State of Qatar strongly condemns the targeting of the East-West pipeline in the Riyadh and Medina regions of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia by several drones launched from the Republic of Iraq, resulting in casualties and material damage. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs affirms that targeting civilian and economic facilities constitutes a reprehensible act and a flagrant violation of international law, as well as a dangerous escalation that undermines the security and stability of the region. In this context, it appreciates the responsible approach adopted by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in supporting the Iraqi government's efforts to prevent the use of its territory to attack the Kingdom and neighboring countries. The Ministry expresses the State of Qatar's full solidarity with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and its support for all measures taken to protect its sovereignty, security, and facilities. #QatarForeignMinistry
Qatar strongly condemns the targeting of the East-West pipeline in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Doha | September 11, 2026 The State of Qatar strongly condemns the targeting of the East-West pipeline in the Riyadh and Medina regions of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia by several drones launched from the Republic of Iraq, resulting in casualties and material damage. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs affirms that targeting civilian and economic facilities constitutes a reprehensible act and a flagrant violation of international law, as well as a dangerous escalation that undermines the security and stability of the region. In this context, the Ministry appreciates the responsible approach adopted by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in supporting the Iraqi government's efforts to prevent the use of its territory to attack the Kingdom and neighboring countries. The Ministry expresses the State of Qatar's full solidarity with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and its support for all measures taken to protect its sovereignty, security, and facilities. #QatarForeignMinistry
Where does the news lean?
0YES9NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 92%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets Saudi Arabia through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at Saudi Arabia. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.
A military action will be considered directed at Saudi Arabia if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of Saudi Arabia, including any internal waters.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and Saudi Arabia and a consensus of credible reporting.
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