When will Iran target Saudi Arabia?
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Market pricing makes November 30 the favorite at 30% across 5 tracked outcomes, as of .
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Reuters reported that the attacks on Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport, which killed 13 people and injured more than 300 on Saturday, led to the closure of the airport and the US Federal Aviation Administration warning about flying in Saudi airspace. The agency on Sunday, October 9, urged American airlines to exercise caution when flying to or through Saudi Arabia due to military activity and disruptions in navigation systems. The warning is valid until December 9. At the same time, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi discussed the escalation of regional tensions. Araqchi announced Tehran's readiness to help facilitate talks between Saudi Arabia and Yemen. The disruption to flights affected the World Petroleum Council's energy congress in Riyadh. BP has pulled out of the conference, and the Financial Times reported that the CEOs of ExxonMobil, Total Energy and Shell will also not attend. Saudi Arabia signed three energy cooperation agreements with Kuwait, Qatar and Egypt, and the Central Bank of Syria announced the issuance of its first letter of credit in 14 years to facilitate an oil deal with Saudi Aramco.
The fires continue to rage at Saudi targets, the sirens are still blaring, and the strikes against their troop concentrations are ongoing. — The Leader, October 8, 2026
On Monday, October 26, the Al-Arabi Al-Jadeed website quoted three Iraqi officials as saying that the investigation into the attack on the East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia has reached its final stages, and that “the attackers entered Iraq from Iran” and carried out the attack from Maysan province. According to this report, the attackers illegally entered Iraqi territory from Iran, launched the drones from the Tayeb border area, and then returned to Iran. Al-Arabi Al-Jadeed quoted these Iraqi officials as saying: “The group that was in contact with them from inside Iraq is linked to an armed group and has coordinated with the Yemeni Houthi group.” One of the sources added that the Iraqi Foreign Ministry had informed the Islamic Republic’s Foreign Ministry of the information obtained from the investigation; Including information related to the identities of the individuals participating in the operation, the nature of the communications of the executing group, as well as information related to the entry of these individuals into Iraqi territory and their exit from the country. He said that the Iraqi side had provided Tehran with the information and evidence it had in this regard, but Tehran had not responded to the information and evidence provided by Baghdad.
Statement from the Yemeni Armed Forces regarding the targeting of sensitive targets in the Saudi enemy capital, Riyadh, and the targeting of Aramco in Yanbu with a large number of ballistic and cruise missiles and drones - September 19, 2026 Statement issued by the Yemeni Armed Forces In the name of God, the Most Gracious, the Most Merciful
God Almighty said: {So whoever transgresses against you, then transgress against him in the same way that he transgressed against you.} God Almighty has spoken the truth. In response to the great slander of accusing Yemen, the land of faith and wisdom, of targeting Mecca, and in defense of it against the insult of the modern-day Qarun, the horn of Satan, the Najdi Saudi. And in response to the continued aggression of the criminal Saudi enemy against our dear people With its F-15 and Typhoon warplanes, which take off from the Khamis Mushait and Taif bases, the Saudi-led coalition has carried out 732 airstrikes to date, resulting in civilian casualties and destruction of civilian infrastructure. In response to the Saudi enemy's attempts to target the capital, Sana'a, using ISIS-style tactics, including indiscriminate bombings targeting civilians, the Yemeni Armed Forces conducted two significant military operations using a large number of ballistic and cruise missiles and drones. The first targeted sensitive locations in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, and the second targeted Aramco facilities in Yanbu. The two operations, by the grace of God Almighty, were successful and resulted in massive fires in the targeted locations. The Yemeni Armed Forces affirm that the false propaganda disseminated by the Saudi enemy media, claiming that we are targeting civilians, is baseless. Any such claims are merely the result of failed interceptions by the Saudi enemy's defenses. The Yemeni Armed Forces will continue to enforce the equation of siege for siege and escalation for escalation, targeting Saudi enemy troop concentrations until the aggression ceases and the siege on our beloved country is lifted. God is sufficient for us, and He is the best of guardians, the best of protectors, and the best of helpers. Long live Yemen, free, dignified, and independent!
Victory to Yemen and to all free people! The Nation.
Sana'a, 8 Rabi' al-Thani 1448 AH
Corresponding to 19 September 2026 AD. Issued by the Yemeni Armed Forces [in reply to: An important statement from the Yemeni Armed Forces announcing large-scale military operations deep inside Saudi Arabia, at 8:00 PM.]
The Saudi enemy's slander against our people by claiming to have targeted Mecca is "a huge, ugly, and heinous lie, and a blatant and egregious falsehood." — Leader, September 17, 2026
Statement | The Ministry of Foreign Affairs expresses the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia's condemnation and denunciation of the Houthi terrorist militia's launch of a hostile drone towards the holy city of Mecca on Tuesday, 4 Rabi' al-Thani 1448 AH, corresponding to September 15, 2026.
A comparison of satellite images from 2025 and September 13, 2026, shows damage to Saudi Arabia's East-West Oil Pipeline after a drone attack on Thursday, September 10. Saudi officials said oil shipments through the vital pipeline, which helps ease pressure from disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, were temporarily halted following a drone attack attributed to Iraq.
On Saturday, September 11, Masoud Pezzekian, the head of the Islamic Republic, said in an interview with the India Today television channel on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in New Delhi: "The Islamic Republic is not at war with Saudi Arabia." Pezzekian's statements came after a drone attack on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and its temporary closure by Riyadh; Saudi Arabia and Iraq have announced that the attack was carried out from Iraqi soil.
Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Energy announced on Friday, September 10, that the "East-West" oil pipeline (located in the Riyadh and Medina regions) was targeted by several attacks on Thursday morning.
The statement said that following the attacks, oil transfer operations on the pipeline were suspended as a precaution.
The incident also resulted in injuries to a number of people who were provided with necessary medical services and care.
@VahidOOnLine
The Saudi Foreign Ministry announced that the country's East-West oil pipeline was targeted by drones launched from Iraq.
The Saudi Foreign Ministry added that at this stage, it had decided not to take retaliatory action at the request of the Iraqi Prime Minister.
@VahidOOnLine
Reuters reported that Baghdad had ordered the closure of the Shalamcheh border crossing between Iraq and Iran.
Two Iraqi security sources told the news agency that Iraq had used the crossing as a precautionary measure. The border crossing is closed as a precaution following a drone attack originating in Iraq on Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline.
The Shalamcheh border crossing is one of the main land routes between Iran and Iraq.
According to reports, the drone fired at Saudi Arabia was fired from Iraq's Maysan province. The province is in southeastern Iraq and borders Iran, and its administrative center is the city of Amara.
@VahidHeadline
Reuters wrote: According to the two sources, a large-scale operation is underway to track down and prosecute the perpetrators of the attack on Saudi Arabia.
@VahidOOnLine @VahidOnline
Iraq closed the Shalamcheh border crossing with Iran as a precaution after a drone attack on a Saudi oil pipeline, two security sources told Reuters. According to the sources, Iraqi forces have simultaneously launched a large-scale operation to identify and track down the perpetrators of the attack. Iraqi authorities have not yet released further details about the operation. Saudi Arabia announced on Friday, September 10, that its strategic East-West pipeline had been targeted by drones launched from Iraqi territory. The East-West pipeline transports oil from eastern Saudi Arabia to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea coast and is one of the country's main oil export routes.
Saudi Arabia's claim about the attack on its oil pipeline from Iraqi soil
The Saudi Foreign Ministry claimed on Friday night that the country's oil pipeline was targeted by a drone attack from Iraq.
News Code: 861602
Published Date: 21 Shahrivar 1405 - 01:29 - 12September 2026
According to the International Defense Press Group, citing Al Jazeera Qatar, the Saudi Foreign Ministry claimed that the attack on the country's oil pipeline was carried out by several drones that came from Iraq.
The ministry, while condemning the targeting of the "East-West" oil pipeline, added that these attacks left several injured. It also added: Saudi Arabia has preferred not to respond at this stage and, at the request of the Iraqi Prime Minister, to support the efforts of the government based in Baghdad.
The Saudi Foreign Ministry announced that its country reserves its right to take all necessary measures to protect its sovereignty, security and facilities. Knows.
Previously, a source in the Saudi Ministry of Energy announced: "The "East-West" oil pipeline in the Riyadh and Medina regions was the target of several attacks on the morning of Thursday, September 10, 2026 (19 Shahrivar)."
The source confirmed the suspension of the pipeline's operations, citing
Saudi Arabia's claim about the attack on its oil pipeline from Iraqi soil
The Saudi Foreign Ministry claimed on Friday night that the country's oil pipeline was targeted by a drone attack from Iraq.
News Code: 861602
Published Date: 21 Shahrivar 1405 - 01:29 - 12September 2026
According to the International Defense Press Group, citing Al Jazeera Qatar, the Saudi Foreign Ministry claimed that the attack on the country's oil pipeline was carried out by several drones that came from Iraq.
The ministry, while condemning the targeting of the "East-West" oil pipeline, added that these attacks left several injured. It also added: Saudi Arabia has preferred not to respond at this stage and, at the request of the Iraqi Prime Minister, to support the efforts of the government based in Baghdad.
The Saudi Foreign Ministry announced that its country reserves its right to take all necessary measures to protect its sovereignty, security and facilities. Knows.
Previously, a source in the Saudi Ministry of Energy announced: "The "East-West" oil pipeline in the Riyadh and Medina regions was the target of several attacks on the morning of Thursday, September 10, 2026 (19 Shahrivar)."
The source confirmed the suspension of the pipeline's operations, citing
Qatar strongly condemns the targeting of the East-West pipeline in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Doha | September 11, 2026 The State of Qatar strongly condemns the targeting of the East-West pipeline in the Riyadh and Medina regions of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia by several drones launched from the Republic of Iraq, resulting in casualties and material damage. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs affirms that targeting civilian and economic facilities constitutes a reprehensible act and a flagrant violation of international law, as well as a dangerous escalation that undermines the security and stability of the region. In this context, it appreciates the responsible approach adopted by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in supporting the Iraqi government's efforts to prevent the use of its territory to attack the Kingdom and neighboring countries. The Ministry expresses the State of Qatar's full solidarity with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and its support for all measures taken to protect its sovereignty, security, and facilities. #QatarForeignMinistry
Qatar strongly condemns the targeting of the East-West pipeline in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Doha | September 11, 2026 The State of Qatar strongly condemns the targeting of the East-West pipeline in the Riyadh and Medina regions of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia by several drones launched from the Republic of Iraq, resulting in casualties and material damage. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs affirms that targeting civilian and economic facilities constitutes a reprehensible act and a flagrant violation of international law, as well as a dangerous escalation that undermines the security and stability of the region. In this context, the Ministry appreciates the responsible approach adopted by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in supporting the Iraqi government's efforts to prevent the use of its territory to attack the Kingdom and neighboring countries. The Ministry expresses the State of Qatar's full solidarity with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and its support for all measures taken to protect its sovereignty, security, and facilities. #QatarForeignMinistry
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets Saudi Arabia through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at Saudi Arabia. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.
A military action will be considered directed at Saudi Arabia if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of Saudi Arabia, including any internal waters.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and Saudi Arabia and a consensus of credible reporting.