Lebanon Parliamentary Election WinnerHezbollah (Hezb)
Open$56Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 1% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES1¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
6 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Nawar Najmeh, a member of the Syrian Parliamentary Elections Committee, stated: "Syria is not interested in eliminating Hezbollah, but it is keen to build strong relations with Lebanon based on state sovereignty and strengthening the role of legitimate institutions. The organization has plunged the country into security crises to implement foreign agendas."
Lebanon vs. Iran: Lebanese Justice Minister Adel Nasser said in an interview with Sky News that his country has the right to demand that Iran bear all damages resulting from its policy of interfering in Lebanese affairs, which includes training, arming, and financing a military system operating under its command - with the intention of Hezbollah. @migansh5
Ibrahim Saqr, prominent Lebanese Christian activist: • • "90% of Lebanese were quietly praying there wouldn't be a ceasefire, so they could get rid of Hezbollah."
NOReuters98%match93¢+6%
[Replying to @Reuters] Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam said he would not accept anyone dragging 'the country into adventures that threaten its security and unity,' in an indirect message to the Iran-backed Lebanese armed group Hezbollah >
NOVisegrád 2498%match94¢+5%
Lebanon’s Finance Minister Yassine Jaber wants to register unserveyed lands in Mount Lebanon under the state instead of the municipalities to give the Shiites more control over Christian lands. LF & Kataeb are going to push legal action against the decision. Via @O_Apologetics
NOAl Jazeera English98%match95¢+4%
Lebanon sets four months for second phase of Hezbollah disarmament
Where does the news lean?
9YES27NO38neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
What would make this resolve YES?
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
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See all outcomes for Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.