Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner
Open44as of
Market pricing makes Amal Movement (Amal) the favorite at 2% across 44 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
All further outcomes (14 more):
Party I · Party K · Lebanese Forces (LF) · Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF) · Union Party (UP) · Popular Nasserist Organization (PNO) · Party A · Party G · Party M · Party S · Party P · Party N · Party R · Party T
What moved the odds?
30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Israel is considering withdrawing from southern Lebanon, while the Lebanese army faces a test of maintaining control and preventing Hezbollah's return.
Israel is considering withdrawing from southern Lebanon, while the Lebanese army faces a test of control and preventing Hezbollah's return.
Hussein Pak, a journalist based in Lebanon: Governments like Saudi Arabia are increasing pressure on Lebanon to limit Hezbollah.
Israeli Foreign Minister: The ongoing negotiations in Washington with Lebanon are historic and extremely important.
Hezbollah poses a threat to Lebanon's independence and Israel's security.
Lebanon and Israel are expected to discuss “pilot zones” during today’s talks in Washington, per sources familiar, which would see Israeli forces withdraw from areas to be replaced by Lebanese troops who have been vetted and trained by the United States.
Lebanese MP Ghassan Hasbani: Iran continues to violate Lebanese sovereignty by dragging Hezbollah into a war that has nothing to do with the Lebanese state... and Tehran sought a ceasefire to preserve its military arm, not out of concern for the country.
Nawar Najmeh, a member of the Syrian Parliamentary Elections Committee, stated: "Syria is not interested in eliminating Hezbollah, but it is keen to build strong relations with Lebanon based on state sovereignty and strengthening the role of legitimate institutions. The organization has plunged the country into security crises to implement foreign agendas."
Israel, Lebanon discuss pilot project for transfer of some southern territory to Lebanese army
Lebanon vs. Iran: Lebanese Justice Minister Adel Nasser said in an interview with Sky News that his country has the right to demand that Iran bear all damages resulting from its policy of interfering in Lebanese affairs, which includes training, arming, and financing a military system operating under its command - with the intention of Hezbollah. @migansh5
Nawar Najmeh, a member of the Syrian Parliamentary Elections Committee, stated: "American statements regarding Syrian intervention in Lebanon indicate satisfaction with Damascus's ability to resolve internal and external problems. Trump means that the Sharia administration is playing a political role to help Lebanon resolve the Hezbollah crisis."
The pilot in Lebanon: The IDF is preparing to withdraw forces from limited areas; Lebanese army fighters will replace them - and will be tested on their ability to prevent Hezbollah from regaining control of the territory.
Sheikh Naim Qassem: Israel has no choice but to withdraw from Lebanese soil Secretary-General of Hezbollah in Lebanon:
The project to destroy Hezbollah has failed.
Israel has no choice but to withdraw from Lebanese soil.
Hezbollah's 15-month patience did not mean withdrawal, but was part of a strategy of preparation and preparation for a decisive stage.
Hezbollah has doubled its power by relying on Tehran's support. @IRIBNEWS_COM
Lebanon: Sheikh Naim Qassem: The ceasefire that has taken place will be followed by a withdrawal from Lebanese territory.
Lebanon: Sheikh Naim Qassem: There was a major project called ending Hezbollah militarily, politically, culturally, socially, and in terms of human resources.
A poll conducted by Statistics Lebanon reveals a shift in Lebanese sentiment regarding Iranian interference in internal affairs.
A poll conducted by Statistics Lebanon reveals a shift in Lebanese sentiment regarding Iranian interference in internal affairs.
Samer Saadeh to OTV: Adib Abdel Massih is attracting many votes from the Kataeb Party and from the Kataeb base in Koura.
Al-Ghadir Square | Hezbollah are the victors @iribnews
Ibrahim Saqr, prominent Lebanese Christian activist: • • "90% of Lebanese were quietly praying there wouldn't be a ceasefire, so they could get rid of Hezbollah."
Hezbollah threatens Lebanese officials: Whoever wants to be an "Antoine Lahad" will be fought like the Israelis
Hezbollah has been defeated and is now alone. #SkyGuests #Lebanon #Escalation_in_the_Middle_East
Velayati: "The current Lebanese government has adopted the method of Rafik Hariri, but his supporters have themselves failed; this method is not in the interest of Lebanon. If the Lebanese government continues to fight Hezbollah, the people will abandon it."
Live: Lebanese government has little leverage over Hezbollah
Lebanon: "Hezbollah is almost hated by all communities" Antoine Basbous, Director of the Observatory of Arab Countries
Geagea: We have repeatedly asked Hezbollah to spare Lebanon the worst, but they did not listen. Perhaps they will listen today.
Lebanon: Amal Movement: We thank the Lebanese people for their awareness, vigilance, and constant efforts to quell strife and strengthen the bonds of national unity.
Hezbollah is an "obstacle" to peace in Lebanon, justice minister says
[Replying to @Reuters] Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam said he would not accept anyone dragging 'the country into adventures that threaten its security and unity,' in an indirect message to the Iran-backed Lebanese armed group Hezbollah >
Lebanon’s Finance Minister Yassine Jaber wants to register unserveyed lands in Mount Lebanon under the state instead of the municipalities to give the Shiites more control over Christian lands. LF & Kataeb are going to push legal action against the decision. Via @O_Apologetics
Lebanon’s Finance Minister Yassine Jaber wants to register unserveyed lands in Mount Lebanon under the state instead of the municipalities to give the Shiites more control over Christian lands. LF & Kataeb are going to push legal action against the decision. Via @O_Apologetics
What is this event about?
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament..
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.