Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)Merz - German Chancellor
ResolvedOutcome: No$257Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
8 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
German coalition leaders strike tax reform deal to reverse steep popularity losses
German Government presents sweeping reform package: • - scraps many corporate reporting requirements • - cuts job security • - cuts taxes for low and medium incomes while raising top income taxes • Asked about impact on China policy, Merz stressed Germany "must become more competitive" but will "defend itself" against unfair trade practices and rare earth dependencies.
Live: Merz presents coalition reform package in bid to revive economy amid AfD challenge
NOReuters99%match100¢
German Chancellor Merz: Will Present Simplified Tax Law Suggestions This Autumn
NOReuters99%match100¢
German Chancellor Merz: Tax Reforms Relieve Lower and Middle Income Families, Up to 600 Euros Per Year on Average
NOReuters99%match100¢
German Chancellor Merz: Want to Implement Reform Package by the End of This Year
NOmail.dbnews.com99%match100¢
CvD Press Conference: Press statements by Federal Chancellor Merz and the President of the Republic of Senegal Faye on June 23, 2026 in Berlin
"Prosperity for the youth": Merz wants to use pensions to restart his chancellorship.
Where does the news lean?
4YES14NO7neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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See all outcomes for Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban) — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.