Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in AmapáFlavio Bolsonaro
ResolvedOutcome: No$28Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
4 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
How did Brazil's Flavio Bolsonaro pull off a first-round lead?
Right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro heads to an October 25 runoff election in Brazil from a position of strength, riding a conservative wave that has left President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva facing a tough battle to win a fourth term.
"Lula paid the price for voter discontent": In Brazil, Flavio Bolsonaro is leading in the first round of the presidential election
YESReuters94%match3¢-100%
Flavio Bolsonaro, Lula Headed to Runoff in Brazil Presidential Election -- Electoral Authority
Where does the news lean?
16YES8NO5neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 97%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
How did this market resolve?
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
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