Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Amapá
Open40as of
This hub tracks 40 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
All further outcomes (10 more):
Candidate R · Candidate S · Candidate T · Candidate U · Candidate V · Candidate W · Candidate X · Candidate Y · Candidate Z · Other
What moved the odds?
26 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Brazilians react to Bolsonaro's shock lead over President Lula • • Brazilians in Sao Paulo share a mix of views after right-wing senator Flavio Bolsonaro -- son of former president Jair Bolsonaro -- pulled off a surprise first-place finish in the first round election, beating incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
Brazilians react to Bolsonaro's shock lead over President Lula • • Brazilians in Sao Paulo share a mix of views after right-wing senator Flavio Bolsonaro -- son of former president Jair Bolsonaro -- pulled off a surprise first-place finish in the first round election, beating incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
How did Brazil's Flavio Bolsonaro pull off a first-round lead?
US President Donald Trump hailed the success of Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the right-wing candidate in Brazil's presidential election, in the first round. Bolsonaro came out on top on Sunday with the most votes, contrary to poll predictions.
Live: #BRAZIL After Javier Milei and numerous radical right-wing leaders from the South American continent, it is now Donald Trump's turn to praise Flavio Bolsonaro's breakthrough in the first round of the Brazilian presidential election...
Right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro heads to an October 25 runoff election in Brazil from a position of strength, riding a conservative wave that has left President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva facing a tough battle to win a fourth term.
Presidential election in Brazil: how to explain Flavio Bolsonaro's success against incumbent Lula?
Jair Bolsonaro's wife, Michelle: elected Senator tonight. • • Jair Bolsonaro's son, Carlos: elected Senator. • • Jair Bolsonaro's other son, Renan: elected Congressman. • • Jair Bolsonaro's other son, Flavio, currently a Senator: ahead of Lula, headed toward a run-off for President. • • Jair Bolsonaro's other son, Eduardo: leaving Congress, in the US, facing arrest and imprisonment if he returns. • • Jair Bolsonaro: imprisoned at home for 28 years.
“More moderate” than his father? Who is Flavio Bolsonaro, the surprise of the first round of the presidential election in Brazil?
"Lula paid the price for voter discontent": In Brazil, Flavio Bolsonaro is leading in the first round of the presidential election
[UPDATE] Bolsonaro and Lula head to a runoff in Brazil's presidential election (first reported at 2026-10-04T04:59:45Z)
Netanyahu congratulated right-wing candidate Flavio Bolsonaro on his lead in the first round of Brazil's presidential election, adding that he looked forward to reviving the extraordinary friendship between the two countries.
Presidential election in Brazil: Flavio Bolsonaro pulls off a surprise victory, overtaking Lula in the first round
Flavio Bolsonaro, Lula Headed to Runoff in Brazil Presidential Election -- Electoral Authority
URGENT Candidate Flavio Bolsonaro Leads in Brazil's Presidential Election - First Data
Former President Jair Bolsonaro's Eldest Son Flavio Leads in Brazil's Presidential Election - First Results: 1.61% of Votes Counted
Brazil's Flavio Bolsonaro turns scandal into poll gains
Brazilian presidential election: Flavio Bolsonaro under investigation for corruption
Revelations that Brazilian presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro is under investigation for alleged corruption and money laundering rocked his right-wing campaign Friday, weeks before elections.
Brazil: In the midst of his presidential campaign, Flavio Bolsonaro is the target of a corruption investigation
Corruption probe targets Brazil presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro
Presidential election in Brazil: Flavio Bolsonaro targeted by a corruption investigation
Brazil president candidate Flavio Bolsonaro targeted in corruption probe
Brazil: Flavio Bolsonaro, candidate in the October presidential election, is the subject of a corruption and money laundering investigation
Brazil presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro targeted in corruption probe: court
In Brazil, Flavio Bolsonaro gathers thousands of supporters, nearly a month before the presidential election.
What is this event about?
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).