Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá? Odds fell to 30% on Oct 4, 2026

Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá? On Oct 4, 2026, 20:31 UTC, the market’s odds fell from 55¢ to 30¢ (-25 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from News.

How did the odds move?

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Oct 4, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

• Oct 4, 2026, 20:37 UTC55¢ → 18¢-37 ptsafter a signal from News

What moved the odds?

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 16% chance that this market resolves YES, as of Oct 4, 2026, 23:24 UTC.

Vol$11K

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Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Amapá — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.