China Annual GDP Growth 20264.0–5.0%
Open$222Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 89% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES89¢
NO12¢
as of
What moved the odds?
10 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
What does #China’s 4.7% growth in H1 2026 tell us? It reflects an economy meeting expectations, gaining substance through innovation and green transition, and showing resilience under pressure. With reform, talent and policy space supporting momentum, China’s long term fundamentals remain sound. • • #ChinaEconomy #EconomicGrowth #HighQualityDevelopment
MORGAN STANLEY CUTS CHINA GDP FORECAST • • Morgan Stanley lowered its 2026 China GDP forecast to 4.6% from 4.8% after weaker-than-expected June activity. • • The bank cited slowing infrastructure spending, softer consumer demand and continued property weakness. It expects policy support to stay focused on AI and energy infrastructure rather than consumption, while still forecasting modest growth improvement in the second half.
#This Week's Hot Reads China's GDP grew by 4.3% year-on-year from April to June, the lowest growth rate since the end of 2022. This week's data also highlights the fundamental imbalances in the Chinese economy: foreign trade exceeded expectations, but weak domestic demand is dragging down growth.
China’s economy expanded 4.7% year on year in H1 2026, demonstrating resilience amid global headwinds. Industrial output, services, household income and retail sales recorded steady gains, while innovation-led growth continued to enhance economic quality and provide greater certainty for the global economy. • #ChinaGDP #ChinaEconomy #EconomicResilience #HighQualityDevelopment
YESReuters99%match80¢+11%
Reuters Poll-China 2026 GDP Growth Forecast at 4.6% (vs 4.6% in April Poll), 2027 Growth Expected at 4.4%
YESNews99%match81¢+10%
The IMF has raised its forecast for China's growth rate in 2026 to 4.6% (compared to 4.4% previously) and to 4.1% for 2027.
YESReuters99%match80¢+11%
World Bank: China Growth is Projected to Slow to 4.4% in 2026
YESReuters98%match67¢+33%
Senior IMF Official: China’s Q1 Growth Were Stronger Than We Had Forecast but Its Economy Still Relies Much on Exports, Domestic Demand Remains Weak
YESReuters99%match68¢+31%
Reuters Poll-China 2026 GDP Growth Forecast at 4.6% (vs 4.5% in January Poll), 2027 Growth Seen at 4.5%
OECD PREDICTS CHINA'S GROWTH WILL BE 4.4% IN 2026 AND 4.3% IN 2027.
Where does the news lean?
12YES0NO2neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 97%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
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