China Annual GDP Growth 2026<1.0%
Open$65Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 0% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
7 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
China posts slowest GDP growth since 2022 at 4.3%, missing expectations
NOReuters99%match100¢
World Bank: China Growth is Projected to Slow to 4.4% in 2026
China expected to keep benchmark lending rates steady after strong GDP data - Reuters • •
China expected to keep benchmark lending rates steady after strong GDP data
NOReuters99%match99¢+1%
Senior IMF Official: China’s Q1 Growth Were Stronger Than We Had Forecast but Its Economy Still Relies Much on Exports, Domestic Demand Remains Weak
China's factory activity returns to growth, expanding at its sharpest pace in a year
NOBloomberg99%match95¢+5%
China will set a lower economic growth target range for 2026 than last year, the SCMP reported, reflecting mounting signs that activity will continue to slow
Where does the news lean?
2YES8NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
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