Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 2nd PlaceAfD
ResolvedOutcome: No$68Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
25 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania: Official – CDU fails to enter the state parliament for the first time, AfD wins clearly ahead of SPD
Live: 6 hours and a few minutes, here's a first look at the news: • #GERMANY Two weeks after its electoral success in Saxony-Anhalt, the German far-right party AfD came out on top in the state of Mecklenburg...
In the German state elections, the far-right AfD became the largest party, while Chancellor Merz's CDU suffered a "historic defeat" by losing all its seats.
Merz's party failed to enter the Mecklenburg parliament, while the AfD won.
AfD wins in Mecklenburg with 38.2% of the vote
Preliminary vote counts show that the Alternative for Germany (AfD) won the Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania state parliament election, while the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) failed to secure a seat in the new state parliament.
German far-right party becomes the largest party in northeastern states; Chancellor Merz calls the AfD's surge a "catastrophe," putting the ruling party at risk of losing all seats.
Ergebnis der Mecklenburg-Vorpommern-Wahl: AfD siegt vor SPD, CDU fliegt aus Landtag
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern: Offiziell – AfD gewinnt Wahl vor SPD, CDU verpasst Landtagseinzug
AfD wins elections in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern
Preliminary result: AfD wins in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania - debacle for the CDU
NONews97%match98¢+2%
URGENT AfD wins in Mecklenburg with 38.2% of the vote after 100% of the protocols have been counted – Electoral Commission
The AfD party won the parliamentary elections in the German state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern with 38.2% of the vote after 100% of the votes were processed, the German Electoral Commission reported. Merz's CDU failed to qualify for parliament, receiving only 4.9%. More IZ RU news in MAX
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has won the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state parliament elections with 38.2% of the vote after 100% of the votes were processed, according to the election commission. Chancellor Friedrich Merz's CDU has failed to enter the regional parliament for the first time in German history, receiving less than 5%. Earlier, Merz called his party's performance in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections a disaster.
NONews97%match98¢+2%
AfD party wins parliamentary elections in German state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania with 38.2% of votes after 100% of protocols have been processed - ELECTION COMMISSION
Exit polls: Far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins election in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.
Germany: AfD comes out on top in regional elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, left wins in Berlin
Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania: AfD pulls away from SPD – CDU, according to ongoing count, now only at 4.8 percent
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern has voted: Schwesig's comeback and the AfD's "extreme blue bar"
Elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania: AfD is in the lead – Schwesig wants to continue governing
Elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania: Chancellor weakened, AfD and Left Party celebrate
German Chancellor Merz described the state election results as a "disaster" while signaling his intention to remain in office. According to exit polls, Merz's Christian Democrats (CDU) fell 8 points to second place in the state parliament elections in Berlin. The ruling CDU's votes also fell by 8 percentage points in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, dropping to 5.5% and falling below the threshold. Despite the election shock, Chancellor Friedrich Merz said he would remain in office, using the term "disaster" to describe the situation. Berlin state premier candidate Eralp: — Love and justice triumphed over hatred in our city. — Voters gave us the mandate to open a new chapter for a more just Berlin. AfD leads in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state In Berlin, the Left Party, which nominated Elif Eralp for the chancellorship, is in first place with 24.5% In the capital, the Alternative for Germany (AfD), which increased its votes by 6 points, appears to be in third place with 16% ➜ In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which increased its support by 20 points, is leading with 37% of the vote ➜ In this state, the Social Democrats, who are closely following the AfD, are in second place with 35% Since no single party has received enough support to form a government alone in both states, coalitions are on the horizon German political parties are generally looking to form a coalition government with the AfD not approaching
MERZ'S CDU PARTY POSTS WORST RESULT EVER IN A GERMAN STATE VOTE • • AFD AHEAD OF SOCIAL DEMOCRATS IN NORTHEASTERN STATE VOTE • • ANTI-CAPITALIST LEFT PARTY LEADING IN BERLIN ELECTION
Meck-Pom resembles Brandenburg and Saxony in 2024, not Saxony-Anhalt last week: a two-horse race between a popular incumbent and the AfD, with all other parties squeezed. • • Real risk the CDU could find itself ejected from the state parliament - for the first time ever in Germany?
Poll for Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania: AfD significantly extends its lead over SPD – CDU slips to its worst ever recorded level
Where does the news lean?
17YES65NO10neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
How did this market resolve?
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Related markets
See all outcomes for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.