Will AfD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? Odds jumped to 19% on Sep 11, 2026

OpenMoveSep 11, 2026, 06:30 UTC

Will AfD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? On Sep 11, 2026, 06:30 UTC, the market’s odds jumped from 10.6¢ to 18.9¢ (+8.3 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from aa_arabic.

How did the odds move?

At match10.6¢

+5m10.6¢

+30m18¢

+1h18.9¢

1h move+8.3 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

Noaa_arabic98%match

A poll shows the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party leading with 36 percent ahead of the Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania state elections in northern Germany. The poll was conducted by the INSA Institute before the elections scheduled for September 20.

Sep 11, 2026, 06:30 UTC

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 19% chance that this market resolves YES, as of Sep 11, 2026, 07:30 UTC.

YES19¢

NO81¢

Vol$36K

Follow this market

Will AfD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.