Will AfD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? Odds fell to 11% on Sep 20, 2026
ResolvedOutcome: No
Will AfD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? On , the market’s odds fell from 35.7¢ to 11¢ (-24.7 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Reuters. The market has since resolved No.
How did the odds move?
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
Later moves the same day
This is the market’s single brief for Sep 20, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.
- 20¢ → 11¢-9 ptsafter a signal from welt.de
- 10.9¢ → 1.9¢-9 ptsafter a signal from dpa.com
- 19.7¢ → 1.8¢-17.9 ptsafter a signal from anadoluajansi
- 19.5¢ → 1.8¢-17.7 ptsafter a signal from Russian Media
- 20.9¢ → 1.8¢-19 ptsafter a signal from welt.de
- 20.5¢ → 1.8¢-18.7 ptsafter a signal from Published: 2026-09-20T18:34:59+02:00
- 19.7¢ → 1.8¢-17.9 ptsafter a signal from spiegel.de
- 11.6¢ → 1.3¢-10.3 ptsafter a signal from dpa.com
- 16.4¢ → 1.1¢-15.2 ptsafter a signal from Walla Reporter
What moved the odds?
Where does this market stand now?
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
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Will AfD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.
See all outcomes for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.