Will AfD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? Odds fell to 11% on Sep 20, 2026

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Will AfD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? On , the market’s odds fell from 35.7¢ to 11¢ (-24.7 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Reuters.

How did the odds move?

At match35.7¢
+5m12.9¢
+30m20.2¢
+1h11¢
1h move-24.7 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

NoReuters97%match
Germany’s Far-Right AfD Projected to Win 37.0% in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania State Election - Exit Poll

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 15% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES15¢
NO85¢

Vol$64K

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Will AfD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.