AfD wins the most seats in how many September state elections?2
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$83Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
6 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
The far-right has won the elections in Germany again, threatening Merz's position - DW The Alternative for Germany party won the parliamentary elections in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern with about 38% of the vote. The Social Democrats came in second with about 35%. The Left Party is leading in the state capital, Merz's conservatives are second, and the far-right is only third with 16%. Two weeks earlier, the same party also won in Saxony-Anhalt, gaining almost 44%. The media is discussing a possible replacement for Merz without early elections - on the evening of the voting day, he convened the party leadership to find out whether they support him in office. Read only the gist from RBC-Ukraine on Google.
AFP: Sunday's Berlin election coincided with an election in the state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, where the Alternative for Germany party returned to first place after its success in the state of Saxony-Anhalt a few days ago.
The hardline right-wing AfD is likely to become the largest party in the German state elections, and is poised to become the third largest party in Berlin.
In the parliamentary elections of two eastern German states, the left-wing party and the far-right made significant gains, while the ruling Merz party suffered a major setback.
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party makes strong gains in state elections and comes in second in Berlin. [in reply to: What does the rise of the AfD in Germany mean?! The election campaign of the party accused of extremism and closeness to Russia: - Normalization of German-Russian relations
- Stopping immigration
- Restarting the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines
- Leaving the European Union.
Germany's far-right AfD wins landslide victory in former East German state parliament elections... First state government presidency uncertain
Where does the news lean?
17YES2NO67neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
How did this market resolve?
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (also known as Saxony-Anhalt), the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in September of 2026.
This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections.
No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026.
A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market.
Related markets
See all outcomes for AfD wins the most seats in how many September state elections? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.