AfD wins the most seats in how many September state elections?1
Open$20Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 3% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES3¢
NO97¢
as of
What moved the odds?
2 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
One in five Germans would leave the country if the most popular party won. A week before the elections to the Landtag (local parliament) of Saxony-Anhalt, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party maintains a significant lead over the Christian Democratic Union (CDU). This is evidenced by the results of a survey conducted by the sociological institute Insa on behalf of Bild, the German publication writes. Also, more than one in five (22%) of German residents surveyed said they would consider leaving the country if the AfD not only won the elections in Saxony, but also came to power at the federal level in the future. At the same time, 47% of respondents believe that a federal government led by the AfD would harm Germany. 36% disagreed with this. RBC channel on "Max"
RBC app for iOS and Android
State election: AfD still clearly ahead of CDU in polls in Saxony-Anhalt
Where does the news lean?
4YES0NO3neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans YES at 54% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
What would make this resolve YES?
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (also known as Saxony-Anhalt), the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in September of 2026.
This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections.
No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026.
A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market.
Related markets
See all outcomes for AfD wins the most seats in how many September state elections? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.