Russia Parliamentary Election: 3rd PlaceA Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)
ResolvedOutcome: No$22Kas of
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This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
9 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
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"A JUST RUSSIA" PARTY GAINS 4.96% OF THE VOTES IN THE STATE DUMA ELECTIONS IN THE FEDERAL DISTRICT, ACCORDING TO THE RESULTS OF MORE THAN 95% OF THE PROTOCOLS PROCESSED, AND TAKE FIFTH PLACE - DATA FROM THE CEC
A Just Russia party has failed to secure a seat in the State Duma after more than 90% of the votes have been counted, according to the Central Election Commission. The party failed to secure the 5% needed to enter the lower house. According to current results, United Russia will form a majority in the State Duma. The Communist Party of the Russian Federation, the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia, and New People are also entering parliament. Voter turnout at the polls exceeded 56%. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android
The Kremlin is losing its "second leg" following the State Duma elections. According to the latest data, A Just Russia will fail to clear the 5% threshold in the State Duma elections. This effectively marks the end of the political project that was created in the 2000s as a "second leg of power." This will allow United Russia to significantly increase its presence in the new Duma. An Agency source claims that Sergei Kiriyenko, the current curator of the Kremlin's domestic policy, opposed retaining A Just Russia in the new State Duma. Details. With 92.84% of the votes processed, United Russia has 57.84%. The Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF) is second with 13.82%. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR) is next with 8.93%, followed by New People with 7.97%. A Just Russia has 4.96%. Just taking into account its results on the party lists, United Russia can count on 130 seats in the State Duma; according to the Central Election Commission, United Russia will receive another 208 seats in single-mandate constituencies. The seats that A Just Russia would have won on the party lists will be distributed proportionally among the other parties, electoral expert Stanislav Andreychuk told Agency. Votes cast for other parties that did not pass the 5% threshold will be redistributed in the same manner. In total, the parties that failed to pass the Duma threshold (including A Just Russia) garnered around 10%. This means that approximately 22-23 of the 225 seats allocated by party lists will be redistributed among the parties that made it into parliament. This means that United Russia can expect to win over 350 seats in the new Duma, compared to 324 seats in the 2021 elections. Judging by the results of the party list and single-mandate constituency votes, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF) will have significantly fewer seats in these elections, while New People and the Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR) will have several more. Five Communists, four Socialist Revolutionaries (SRs) and independents, two LDPR representatives, and one candidate from the Rodina party are running for the State Duma in single-mandate constituencies. "Second Leg." A Just Russia emerged in 2006 from the merger of Rodina, the Pensioners' Party, and the Party of Life as a second party of power. The Kremlin hoped to create on the left flank what Vladislav Surkov, then the Kremlin's domestic policy supervisor, called a "second leg": "Society doesn't have a 'second leg' to step onto when the first one goes numb." The party also had a more utilitarian goal: to steal votes from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation. The party was led by Sergei Mironov, then Speaker of the Federation Council, who owed his federal career to his acquaintance with Vladimir Putin in the 1990s. In the first elections in 2007, SR received 7.74%, in 2011 – 13.25%, in 2016 – 6.22%, and in 2021 – 7.46%. A source close to the Kremlin previously told Agency that Deputy Chief of Staff of the Presidential Administration Sergei Kiriyenko did not want A Just Russia to be represented in the new State Duma. Sovereign Revolutionary Party leader Sergei Mironov made no public appearances during the final month of the election campaign. His last public appearance was on August 21 in the Altai Krai. He then appeared for the first time in a video posted on social media on Friday (more details here). What does this mean? Eliminating the "second leg" will help the Kremlin demonstrate a more serious "consolidation" of society around the war than if the party remained in place. More on this here. Subscribe to "Agency" on Telegram / email newsletter
A Just Russia party fails to enter the State Duma after more than 90% of the votes have been counted.
A Just Russia party fails to enter the State Duma after more than 85% of the ballots have been processed.
A Just Russia falls short of the 5% threshold needed to enter the State Duma.
"A Just Russia" has dropped below 5% in the State Duma elections after 79.08% of the votes have been processed. Four parties are entering the Duma: "United Russia" is gaining 57.69%; CPRF - 13.96%; LDPR - 8.75%; "New People" - 7.97%. To stay up to date with the latest news: Website | MAX | Telegram
A Just Russia party fell below the 5% threshold in the Duma elections.
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A JUST RUSSIA FAILED TO OVERCOME THE 5% BARRIER IN THE STATE DUMA ELECTIONS, AFTER PROCESSING MORE THAN 79% OF THE PROTOCOLS, ACCORDING TO THE CEC.
Where does the news lean?
3YES29NO23neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
How did this market resolve?
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
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