Russia Parliamentary Election: 2nd PlaceA Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)
Open$17Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 0% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
1 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Only a quarter of experts are confident that the Just Russia faction will remain in the State Duma. This is stated in a study of party resources and strategies in the elections conducted by the Russian Association of Public Opinion (RASO). 60% believe that Just Russia will be able to overcome the 5% barrier. Not a single expert surveyed doubted the passage of United Russia (UR), the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF), the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR), and New People (NL). According to the party lists, experts predict UR will get 95-130 mandates, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation – 30-44, NL – 20-32, the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia – 15-30, and SR – 10-18. The SR campaign is almost invisible, states Mikhail Vinogradov, president of the Petersburg Politics Foundation. In his opinion, most voters are surprised that such a party exists or remains afloat. "The party's only public political statement was criticism of internet restrictions, which was quite resonant, but, so to speak, had little impact," the political scientist believes.
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Where does the news lean?
0YES2NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
What would make this resolve YES?
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
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