Russia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place

OpenOutcomes34as of

This hub tracks 34 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

All further outcomes (4 more):

Party W · Party X · Party Y · Party Z

What moved the odds?

30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

[UPDATE] Ruling party wins landslide victory in Russian parliamentary elections; experts say "room for mobilization expands" and "political line remains unchanged" (first reported at 2026-09-21T11:05:44.193962300Z)
FWD from CHADAEV: About "A Just Russia." You can, of course, make fun of "Schrödinger's party," but I'd rather write a memoir myself. It was 2006. The entire FEP was bombarding Surkov with memos about how United Russia was clearly becoming ossified, that they were starting to think of themselves as eternal and immortal, and that it would be nice to create an alternative to them. One of the memos was even called "the second party of power." Surkov was strongly against it. Once, he even called me into his office and gave me a lecture, which he himself called "the doctrine of the indivisibility of administrative resources." "At least make one party properly," he said. United Russia isn't a party yet, it's a blank slate, where everyone was herded with a jade baton and told to sit still. But you understand what will happen if you start stirring up a second one right next to it? All the regional "elites" who have conflicts with other "elites" in their region will flee there. Moreover, every second one of these people gets a truancy notice in prison. But now, every time, it won't be a "dispute between business entities," but "the persecution of an opposition member for political reasons." Think about it, damn it, what are you asking for. But, apparently, some more influential people were found back then, and they finally pushed the Presidential Administration into a "second party." They played on the old fetish of "we need to take votes away from the Communist Party." Well, like, there will be a more left-wing version of United Russia, and with its help we will no longer divide votes from the "party of power" (a process unbearably complicated for the bureaucracy), but take them from the Reds. But then everything went exactly according to the scenario comrade lecturer described. At first, calls from above forced a number of current officials to form initiative groups (they fought back as best they could, taking sick leave, vacations, knowing the risks). They recruited these "elitist" types, but when it came to the first federal elections, the press got involved and suddenly they were being persecuted as the real opposition. They sat there, confused: how could this be? We're here on your orders, eh? And smart people explained to them that they were now in the same position as the Communists, Yabloko, SPS, and the rest of the LDPR. Well, things eventually worked out somehow, fortunately the sovereign sent his old friend and ally Mironov to this difficult task. Be that as it may, a second ruling party didn't materialize, nor did a spoiler for the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF). The result was a suitcase without a handle, which became a headache for administrators in every subsequent campaign. And while there were people in the Presidential Administration who remembered our notes, they regularly reminded me, "Be careful what you wish for." Now they're manually pulling them down to 5%—surely, with so many respected people on the list, and the factions seem a bit underrepresented. They'll pull it up, of course. And that's good—among other things, there are quite a few decent people there. Plus, as I already said, preserving the "biodiversity" of our political ecosystem is a valuable asset, and one that's clearly in danger of disappearing. But all this, again, is related to the "party of power" phenomenon, which I've written about extensively before, and which now, after yesterday's results, is a good opportunity to revisit.
The LDPR improved its results in the State Duma elections, which were held for the first time without its founder, Vladimir Zhirinovsky. This was announced by party chairman Leonid Slutsky. "We improved our results, although not as much as we expected, but we improved them compared to 2021, where Vladimir Volfovich led the election campaign and served as its chief coordinator," said Leonid Slutsky. #elections2026
After more than 96.9% of the protocols have been processed, four parties have overcome the five percent barrier in the State Duma elections: United Russia is in the lead with 57.83% of the vote, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation is in second place with 13.76% of the vote, the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia is in third place with 9.01%, and New People is in fourth place with 7.96%. A Just Russia is on the verge of not getting into the State Duma - for a long time, its figure did not exceed the five percent barrier, but after 96.9% were counted, it reached 5%. How the elections in Russia ended and what their results say - in the RBC article. RBC app for iOS and Android RBC channel on "Max"
FWD from Kommersant-Udmurtia: In a number of small towns in Udmurtia, United Russia (UR) received less than 40% of the vote, according to data in the Russian Central Election Commission system as of the morning of September 21. In Glazov, the ruling party received 36.8% of the vote, in Sarapul – 39.3%, and in Mozhga – 39.4%. In Votkinsk, UR's result stands at 49%. In all of the aforementioned towns, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF) is in second place. In Glazov, Sarapul, and Mozhga, the party receives 21.9–24.5%. In Votkinsk, it is 18.6%. Third place in the towns is shared by New People and the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR). The former receive 12.2% and 10.5% of the vote in Glazov and Votkinsk, respectively. The Liberal Democrats take Sarapul and Mozhga with 11.8% and 12%, respectively. We're on MAX | TG | VK
FWD from CHADAEV: About United Russia's electoral triumph. Official propaganda and commentators will talk about consolidation around the flag. Anti-regime propaganda and commentators will talk about how they were slapped together/crushed, and how the regime has further narrowed the space for electoral democracy. Bloggers will grumble and agree that it was more important for the leadership to convincingly demonstrate unity and support than any freedoms, sentiments, and permitted discontent. The icing on the cake is Veliky Novgorod, which has cemented its status as the capital of Russian democracy – here, even Yabloko got into the local legislative assembly. And then there's A Just Russia, hanging on by the flag – the main intrigue. It's important to understand this. Whatever the highest authorities want, the result is determined not only and not so much by their will, but by the collective self-organization of the lower-level leadership. At the top, this is a few dozen people, at the bottom – a couple of million. And they did what they did, and this is important to understand – what drove and drives them, how and why United Russia's electoral rating of around 37% translates into a result of 58% on party lists and almost 100% in districts, with an overall result of approximately 75% in the Duma. As I already wrote, the very name "United Russia" actually contains a certain... protest. A protest against the idea of ​​dividing society into parties and organizing an electoral race between them. The antonym here is a divided Russia. This doesn't mean that people generally don't want to differentiate and demarcate; but they don't want to do so specifically along "party" lines, preferring others – regional, for example. And from the point of view of any governor, to increase their regional representation in Moscow, you need as many votes as possible for one party, so that there are more deputies from your region than from the neighboring one. But which one? It's clear what kind. I foresee despondency that will plunge even the loyal and patriotic blogging community – everything has been concreted down again, and we so wanted more space for freedom, but they won't give it to us. And threatening shouts – are you crazy, we're at war, we need to unite, hold on tight, and not give our enemies even a reason to think that someone here and there is something going on here. So we've already united, right? But we want to reserve the right to a dissenting opinion in certain cases. A small privilege, but a significant one. This doesn't even affect decisions – decisions will be made with even greater monochromaticity than in the last cycle. This is solely about space for expression. It has been preserved, and for some, it has even expanded. And that's good.
Putin's United Russia wins record 355 parliament seats: election chief
Live: #RUSSIA Vladimir Putin's United Russia party won at least 355 seats in the parliamentary elections held over the weekend, according to preliminary results from the Central Election Commission...
Putin's United Russia party leads in Duma election results
Putin's United Russia party wins record 355 parliament seats: election chief
Election results: United Russia receives constitutional majority
United Russia wins the State Duma elections, with three more parties guaranteed entry into parliament.
URGENTLY: The Communist Party of the Russian Federation has a preliminary 13.81% of the vote - Pamfilova
New People (NL)News91%match99¢+1%
URGENTLY "New People" will receive 20 parliamentary seats - Pamfilova
RodinaNews94%match100¢
URGENTLY: The Rodina Party has been provisionally awarded one seat in the State Duma – Pamfilova
So, the Central Election Commission officially announced the preliminary election results after processing 95.18% of the ballots. As expected, United Russia came in as the leader, gaining over 57%. The Communist Party of the Russian Federation came in second with 13.8%. The Liberal Democratic Party of Russia gained almost 9%, and New People gained almost 8%. A Just Russia has not yet managed to overcome the five percent barrier. For the first time since its creation in 2006, the party has not entered the State Duma. Yunashev LIVE is now on MAX Ask a question
RodinaNews95%match100¢
The Rodina Party, preliminarily, receives one seat in the State Duma - Pamphilova
United Russia (ER)News97%match100¢
UNITED RUSSIA WINS A RECORD NUMBER OF SEATS IN THE STATE DUMA FOR THE HISTORY OF ITS PARTY'S PARTICIPATION IN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS, ACCORDING TO DATA FROM THE CEC OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
"A Just Russia" still has a chance to overcome the five percent barrier, said Central Election Commission head Ella Pamfilova. More IZ RU news in MAX [in reply to: Voter turnout in the State Duma elections was 59.32%, said Central Election Commission head Ella Pamfilova. More than 62.6 million Russians took part in the vote. More IZ RU news in MAX]
A JUST RUSSIA HAS AN EVEN BIGGER CHANCE OF OVERCOMING THE 5-PERCENT BARRIER; IT CURRENTLY HAS 4.96% - PAMFILOVA
The Communist Party of the Russian Federation has preliminarily gained 13.81% of the votes and won in five single-mandate constituencies - Pamphilova
United Russia (ER)News93%match100¢
UNITED RUSSIA PRELIMINARY GAINS 57.83% OF THE VOTES AND IS LEADING IN 208 SINGLE-MANDATORY CONSTITUTES - PAMFILOVA
United Russia (ER)News94%match100¢
URGENT: United Russia wins 208 of 225 constituencies after processing 95.88% of the protocols
United Russia leads the State Duma elections with 57.83%. About 95% of the votes have now been processed. Next come the Communist Party of the Russian Federation with 13.81%, the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia with 8.97%, New People with 7.96%, and A Just Russia with 4.96%. Russia was congratulated on the elections in Kazakhstan and China: "There is no doubt that the elected deputies of the State Duma will take effective measures and decisions to improve the well-being of citizens and strengthen Russia's potential as a world power," the telegram from the President of Kazakhstan says. "The elections to the State Duma of Russia were successful, and the Chinese side expresses its congratulations on this occasion. This is an important event in the political life of the Russian Federation, and their results reflect the will of the Russian people," said the official representative of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Guo Jiakun. Elections of the heads of state were also held regions, the results have been collected: The current head of Mordovia, Zdunov, is leading with 78.44% of the votes after 91.24% of the protocols have been processed. Khovalyg wins the Tuva gubernatorial election with 90.95% of the votes after 100% of the protocols have been processed. Shuvaev wins the Belgorod region gubernatorial election with 65.97% of the votes after 100% of the protocols have been processed. Kovalchuk gains 68.03% of the votes in the Bryansk region gubernatorial election — 96.2% of the protocols have been processed. Korolev is leading the Tver region gubernatorial election with 69.8% after 90.7% of the protocols have been processed. Melnichenko wins the Penza Oblast gubernatorial election with 70.92% of the vote after 98.2% of the votes have been processed. Russkikh leads the Ulyanovsk Oblast gubernatorial election with 76.65% of the votes after 97% of the votes have been processed. Zvezdanews in MAX [in reply to: After processing 79.08% of the protocols, United Russia receives 57.69% of the votes in the State Duma elections. The Communist Party of the Russian Federation receives 13.96%, the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia receives 8.75%, and New People receives 7.97%. A Just Russia has dropped below the five percent barrier, with 4.98% of the votes. Counting continues. Zvezdanews in MAX]
"A JUST RUSSIA" PARTY GAINS 4.96% OF THE VOTES IN THE STATE DUMA ELECTIONS IN THE FEDERAL DISTRICT, ACCORDING TO THE RESULTS OF MORE THAN 95% OF THE PROTOCOLS PROCESSED, AND TAKE FIFTH PLACE - DATA FROM THE CEC
The Kremlin is losing its "second leg" following the State Duma elections. According to the latest data, A Just Russia will fail to clear the 5% threshold in the State Duma elections. This effectively marks the end of the political project that was created in the 2000s as a "second leg of power." This will allow United Russia to significantly increase its presence in the new Duma. An Agency source claims that Sergei Kiriyenko, the current curator of the Kremlin's domestic policy, opposed retaining A Just Russia in the new State Duma. Details. With 92.84% of the votes processed, United Russia has 57.84%. The Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF) is second with 13.82%. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR) is next with 8.93%, followed by New People with 7.97%. A Just Russia has 4.96%. Just taking into account its results on the party lists, United Russia can count on 130 seats in the State Duma; according to the Central Election Commission, United Russia will receive another 208 seats in single-mandate constituencies. The seats that A Just Russia would have won on the party lists will be distributed proportionally among the other parties, electoral expert Stanislav Andreychuk told Agency. Votes cast for other parties that did not pass the 5% threshold will be redistributed in the same manner. In total, the parties that failed to pass the Duma threshold (including A Just Russia) garnered around 10%. This means that approximately 22-23 of the 225 seats allocated by party lists will be redistributed among the parties that made it into parliament. This means that United Russia can expect to win over 350 seats in the new Duma, compared to 324 seats in the 2021 elections. Judging by the results of the party list and single-mandate constituency votes, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF) will have significantly fewer seats in these elections, while New People and the Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR) will have several more. Five Communists, four Socialist Revolutionaries (SRs) and independents, two LDPR representatives, and one candidate from the Rodina party are running for the State Duma in single-mandate constituencies. "Second Leg." A Just Russia emerged in 2006 from the merger of Rodina, the Pensioners' Party, and the Party of Life as a second party of power. The Kremlin hoped to create on the left flank what Vladislav Surkov, then the Kremlin's domestic policy supervisor, called a "second leg": "Society doesn't have a 'second leg' to step onto when the first one goes numb." The party also had a more utilitarian goal: to steal votes from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation. The party was led by Sergei Mironov, then Speaker of the Federation Council, who owed his federal career to his acquaintance with Vladimir Putin in the 1990s. In the first elections in 2007, SR received 7.74%, in 2011 – 13.25%, in 2016 – 6.22%, and in 2021 – 7.46%. A source close to the Kremlin previously told Agency that Deputy Chief of Staff of the Presidential Administration Sergei Kiriyenko did not want A Just Russia to be represented in the new State Duma. Sovereign Revolutionary Party leader Sergei Mironov made no public appearances during the final month of the election campaign. His last public appearance was on August 21 in the Altai Krai. He then appeared for the first time in a video posted on social media on Friday (more details here). What does this mean? Eliminating the "second leg" will help the Kremlin demonstrate a more serious "consolidation" of society around the war than if the party remained in place. More on this here. Subscribe to "Agency" on Telegram / email newsletter
A Just Russia party fails to enter the State Duma after more than 90% of the votes have been counted.
A Just Russia party fails to enter the State Duma after more than 85% of the ballots have been processed.
"United Russia" is leading the elections to the State Duma on the federal list and has gained 57.86%, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation is in second place (13.84%), and the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia is in third place (8.9%) - the results of processing more than 90% of the protocols
A Just Russia failed to overcome the five percent threshold in the State Duma elections in the federal district after processing more than 85% of the ballots, maintaining fifth place, according to the Central Election Commission.

What is this event about?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation. Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.