Where will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?Alabama
Open$4Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 10% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES10¢
NO90¢
as of
What moved the odds?
10 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Live: Hurricane warning in effect for Alabama, Florida
Hurricane Isaias, the first of the 2026 Atlantic season, strengthened to a Category 3 storm and is expected to make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast – threatening parts of Mississippi, Alabama and the western part of the Florida Panhandle.
Americans along the Gulf Coast are evacuating and preparing for Hurricane Isaias as the powerful Category 3 storm closes in, with a dangerous landfall expected tonight. • • Isaias is projected to come ashore between Gulf Shores, Alabama, and Destin, Florida. Category 3 hurricanes can cause “devastating damage,” according to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. • • Some coastal areas could see 6 to 9 feet of storm surge, while parts of the Florida Panhandle could get up to 15 inches of rain. Damaging winds, widespread power outages, and tornadoes are also possible as the storm pushes inland. • • Get the latest updates on the storm from @foxweather :
Americans along the Gulf Coast are evacuating and preparing for Hurricane Isaias as the powerful Category 3 storm closes in, with a dangerous landfall expected tonight. • • Isaias is projected to come ashore between Gulf Shores, Alabama, and Destin, Florida. Category 3 hurricanes can cause “devastating damage,” according to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. • • Some coastal areas could see 6 to 9 feet of storm surge, while parts of the Florida Panhandle could get up to 15 inches of rain. Damaging winds, widespread power outages, and tornadoes are also possible as the storm pushes inland. • • Get the latest updates on the storm from Fox Weather:
Hurricane Isaias Tracker and Live Updates: Category 3 Storm Is Forecast to Make Landfall Along Alabama and Florida Coasts
USA: Hurricane Isaias is expected to hit the Gulf Coast of Florida, Alabama and Mississippi early on Oct. 10 local time. Heavy rain and winds could lead to flooding and landslides. State of emergency declared and evacuation orders issued locally in several areas. See
Live: Officials have issued states of emergency in more than 60 counties in Alabama and Florida, and for the whole state of Georgia. There are mandatory evacuation orders along parts of the northwest Florida coasts, and visitors in parts of coastal Alabama are also required to leave.
Live: On Thursday night, as the storm inched closer to land, watches and warnings for dangerous conditions were in place on a long stretch of the Gulf Coast, from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. The most severe, a hurricane warning, covered most of the Alabama coastline, where weather forecasters expect the storm to come ashore late Friday or early Saturday morning. Wind and rain should pick up during the day on Friday, and are likely to last well into Saturday or even Sunday as the storm, though it is expected to be weakened by then, moves through the Southeast.
Hurricane Isaias, now a Cat 2, is expected to make landfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday, threatening parts of Mississippi, Alabama and the western part of the Florida Panhandle. Meteorologist @RobMarciano is tracking the storm.
Hurricane Isaias was intensifying early Thursday and is expected to make landfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday, threatening parts of Mississippi, Alabama and the western part of the Florida Panhandle.
Where does the news lean?
11YES1NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market resolves based on whether a hurricane will make landfall in the state specified in the title between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A market resolves to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in that state within the timeframe, as described in official National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); for Hawaii, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) advisories also apply. Otherwise, that market resolves to "No".
A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".
Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026.
Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.
If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.
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